400+ Point Dow Jones Loss Sends US Dollar, Japanese Yen Higher - Watch for Further Losses
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:03:34 GMT

The Dow Jones Industrials Average finished 427 points lower on the trading day, sending both the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen substantially higher through...

 

Dollar Future Depends On Rates And Growth Beyond December
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:02:07 GMT

An interest rate is one of the key elements to valuing a currency; however, there are times when other factors are more important to the market. Considering...

 

Euro-US Dollar Surges on Bigger-Than-Expected Drop in US CPI Only to Drop Later on Risk Aversion
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 20:23:49 GMT

- British Pound Spikes Amidst Wild Volatility, Falls Back as BOE Minutes Signal Further Rate Cuts - Japanese Yen Jumps While US Stocks Close at Lowest...

 

Dow Jones Declines Could Lead to US Dollar and Japanese Yen Strength
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:09:56 GMT

The Dow Jones Industrials Average started the day almost exactly flat with yesterday’s close, giving little guidance to the highly risk-sensitive US Dollar...

 

New Zealand Dollar Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:04:24 GMT

Further consolidation in the New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar pair leaves little directional bias for upcoming trade, as the pair trades almost exactly at...

 

Australian Dollar Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:02:07 GMT

The Australian Dollar/US Dollar currency pair remains in a wedge formation, and the next several days of price action will likely the next major AUD/USD...

 

Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:00:06 GMT

The overall US Dollar/Canadian Dollar uptrend remains intact, but we see that the USD/CAD continues to fail at the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of...

 

Swiss Franc Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:58:41 GMT

The US Dollar/Swiss Franc pair recently broke the top of its trendline resistance mark, and the pair is currently challenging the 161.8 percent Fibonacci...

 

British Pound Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:57:06 GMT

The British Pound/US Dollar pair remains in much the same situation as the rest of its forex trading counterparts, trading within a progressively narrower...

 

Yen Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:55:03 GMT

The US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair remains in much the same situation as the Euro/US Dollar, as the USD/JPY remains within a progressively tightening wedge...

 

Euro Technical Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:44:00 GMT

The Euro remains in a tight wedge formation against the US Dollar, with Rangebound price action likely to culminate in breakouts through short-term currency...

 

Commodity Dollars Kept DailyFX Analysts Guessing In October, Where Do They Stand Now?
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:23:19 GMT

The DailyFX analysts correctly betted against the commodity dollars to start October but the exaggerated moves left them susceptible to retracements that...

 

Dollar Remains Primed for Breakout Against Euro, British Pound
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:49:56 GMT

The Euro remains in a tight wedge formation against the US Dollar, with Rangebound price action likely to culminate in breakouts through short-term currency...

 

U.S. Consumer Prices Fall Most On Record Sending Dollar Lower
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:28:18 GMT

Consumer prices fell 1.0% in October which was the biggest decline on record, dragging the annualized inflation rate to 3.7% from 4.9% - the lowest since...

 

New York Session
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:35:58 GMT

The NY session saw all of the action come in the closing hours once again and the flavor was a flight to risk aversion.  US stocks plunged more than -6% on the day in broad terms as the FOMC meeting minutes downgraded the economic outlook materially.  The Fed now sees unemployment above 7% and economic growth near 0% for 2009.  Risk trades in FX were pared accordingly. EUR/USD slipped -140 pips in the session towards the 1.2490/95 zone.  USD/JPY shed roughly -90 points to

 

U.S. Forex Market Commentary
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 22:09:03 GMT

EURO The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2770 level and was supported around the $1.2590 level.  The common currency moved to intraday highs during the early North American session as traders braced for more potential selling pressure in U.S. equity markets.  Traders are closely monitoring the progress of Congressional talks involving the largest U.S. auto-makers who are appealing for a bailout of their

 

The Sterling pared its gains against the Dollar
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 16:11:02 GMT

· The Rupee weakened, closing below the 50 mark, due to weak equity markets and NDF arbitrage. The USD/INR pair ended at 50.01 from 49.65 yesterday. · The 6-month and 1-year forward premium was at 2.48% and 1.80% as compared at 2.64% and 1.91% yesterday. · The Sterling pared its gains against the Dollar after the BoE minutes revealed a unanimous vote in favour of a 150 bps rate cut in its last policy meet . EUR/USD was at 1.2633 from 1.2621 yesterday and GBP/USD was at 1.4961 from 1.5024

 

Currencies Setting Up for a Major Breakout - FOMC Minutes Could be Trigger
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:11:29 GMT

US consumer prices dropped 1 percent last month, taking the annualized pace of growth to 3.7 percent, which is the lowest level since October 2007. Falling oil prices takes the credit for lower inflationary pressures with gasoline prices tracking the 50 percent decline in crude. Gas station receipts fell a whopping 14 percent and commodity prices have fallen in general, which has helped to push down transportation costs. Although the core PPI numbers accelerated, core CPI dropped 0.1 percent

 

London Session
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 13:33:55 GMT

The minutes from the Bank of England meeting showed a unanimous vote to slash rates and this helped Sterling higher in the London trading, in an otherwise rather uneventful session.  Economic data out of the UK was less inspiring.  The Confederation of British Industry's monthly survey of UK manufacturers improved modestly in November, with total orders rising to a still paltry -38 from -39 in October.  The volume of expected output, however, plunged to -42 from -31 and the

 

Japanese yen accelerate vs. the dollar, risk aversion
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:56 GMT

The yen rose against the dollar and euro on Wednesday as investors continued to worry over a deepening global recession and sought safety in the Japanese currency, while Asian shares tumbled despite a rally on Wall Street yesterday. The yen is currently trading at 96.60 against the green back and at 121.80 versus the euro. Fears about the future of U.S. automakers darkened investor sentiment as top executives at General Motors, Ford and Chrysler warned Congress that their industry was

 

Asia Session
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:48:24 GMT

This session's big question would have to be whether the moves (or lack thereof), that we saw are a return to the markets prior to the credit turmoil, or a proverbial ''calm before the storm''. I don't have an answer for you, but there is no dismissing the fact that in comparison to the moves we have become accustomed to over the past few months, the past eight hours were like watching paint dry. The big mover of the session was undoubtedly USD/JPY, which saw the Yen strengthen on speculation

 

Forex - Dollar keeps rising on global economy worries
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:41:15 GMT

Forex News and Events: The Dollar was stronger on Tuesday as investors continue to seek for safety. But a late rally on Wall Street limited dollar gains against Euro and Sterling and boosted it against the Yen on hopes that financial market turmoil may be starting to ease. Market players remain prudent as the euro zone and Japan are already falling into recession in Q3 and US data are showing a sharp slide in home prices for Q3 and a record decline in producer prices last month. In the last 5

 

The Chinese yuan is lower vs. the dollar at 6.8303
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:37:32 GMT

USD -- America’s currency continued to benefit from the recent trend of “safe-haven” flows as uncertainty in the global economic landscape and volatility in the equity markets left market participants skittish and risk averse. Notwithstanding fundamentally bearish economic news emanating from the US last week and this morning, the greenback continues to remain underpinned, trading at multi-year highs against most of its major world counterparts, save the JPY. Initial jobless claims rose to

 

Poor demand outlook dampens interest in base metals
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 08:55:53 GMT

Headlines Crude continues its way down Platinum gains after mine closure in South Africa

 

Last-Hour Rally Brings Indices into Plus Column
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:31:36 GMT

The markets surprised late in the session after another nasty session, and ended with a late afternoon last-hour rally that brought all the indices back into positive territory except for the SOXX. The day started out with a move down, holding support. They backed and filled for a couple hours in what looked like bear-flag formations, then they ended up rolling over hard late morning into mid-afternoon. They tried a bounce that was unsuccessful, then went to lower lows, with the NDX reaching

 

EUR/USD: Trading the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:01:39 GMT

The U.S. dollar could face increased volatility on Wednesday as economists predict the consumer price index to slip to 4.0% from 4.9% in September. In addition, the core measure of inflation is anticipated to follow suit as market participants projected the rate to fall 0.1% in October to 2.4% from 2.5%. Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index What’s Expected Time of release: 11/19/2008 13:30 GMT, 08:30 EST Primary Pair Impact : EURUSD Expected: 4.0% Previous: 4.9% Impact of the U.S.

 

Pivot Upside Expected for Dow, DDM
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:42:54 GMT

The overall pattern in the ProShares Ultralong Dow 30 ETF (AMEX: DDM) carved out off of last Thursday's low at 27.34 indicates that the initial upleg of a powerful recovery rally phase started at 27.34 and ended Friday at 34.23. All of the action since then represents a deep correction of the initial upleg. As long as today's secondary low at 28.50 contains additional, forthcoming weakness, my extreme near-term work is "warning" me to expect a pivot upside reversal that hurdles today's high at

 

Daily Market Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 02:51:33 GMT

Market Review - 18/11/2008 22:28 GMT Dollar rises versus euro on increased demand for U.S. debt Dollar rose against the euro on Tuesday as prices paid to U.S. producers plunged and homebuilder confidence fell, increasing demand for the safety of U.S. Government debt. U.S. producer price index fell by 2.8% in October, the greatest decrease on record, as the faltering global economy caused demand for commodities to dry up. The National Association of Home Builders index of builder confidence

 

19/11/2008 - the current market sentiment
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 23:24:06 GMT

The currency market volatility has come down this week taking clues from the equity market direction changes which have become the leading indicator of the global markets recently as the current financial markets turmoil.   The greenback has found strong support recently from the sell off of the equity market which seemed persisting after the recent weak figure of ISM manafacting index of October which reached 38 in the contracting area below 50 which refers to a longer time than what was

 

New York Session
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 23:22:08 GMT

US equities managed a last minute rally which saw stocks reverse more than 4% from the intraday lows and close up about 1% for the day.  This helped to keep risk trades in FX land mostly above water in the NY session.  USD/JPY rose about 70 points to a close near 97.00 while EUR/JPY witnessed a similar increase into the 122.30 zone.  This left EUR/USD pretty much unchanged overall near 1.2620 after a pretty eventful trading session which saw the pair range about 130 pips. 

 

U.S. Forex Market Commentary
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:11:57 GMT

EURO The euro moved marginally lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2570 level and was capped around the $1.2685 level.  Traders are closely watching congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson today.  Paulson recently noted the credit crisis has moved beyond the housing sector and both officials are likely to face extreme pressure regarding an automakers’ bailout or stabilization

 

FX Market Update
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:50:58 GMT

• Spot moves since last week: Following the Bank of England's (BoE's) very dovish inflation report, EUR/GBP gained over 3% during the past week. From the perspective of the short-run financial model, the upward move seemed overdone with the estimate unchanged at 0.83. Big spot moves were also seen in the dollar-block, with CAD, AUD and NZD continuing to lose ground (2-4%) against the US dollar. According to our short-term financial models, these moves can be explained by the further fall in

 

London Session
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:18:43 GMT

The buck rallied against the majors in London trading as risk aversion was once again in vogue.  Global equity marts remained weak with Asia shedding about -3.5% and European bourses down about -2.0% thus far.  Economic data was light with the only noteworthy release being UK inflation.  Consumer prices fell more than estimated and were running at a 4.5% annual rate in October after a 5.2% run-rate the prior month.  This was the steepest decline in about 11 years and leaves

 

Brent below 50$/b level
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 13:24:01 GMT

Headlines Platinum goes up ahead of Johnson Matthey today’s report Weak economic outlook weighs on base metals Brent and Distillates On Tuesday morning Brent remains around 50$/b as fears mounted that the worsening global economic slump is trimming fuel demand. Yesterday OPEC said that “the rising risk of a prolonged global economic recession, with further downward uncertainties for oil demand growth continues to undermine market sentiment” and cut its forecast for demand growth next year to

 

Risk and Carry Guiding the Dollar
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 10:05:19 GMT

Support 1.2515 1.2450 1.2390 96.40 95.80 95.05 1.4940 1.4890 1.4650 1.1940 1.1890 1.1825 A steep decline in the Wall Street lead to a negative trend in the Asian market leaving the tradrs focused on risk aversion. The weak stock market might prompt further unwinding of the carry trade resulting in Yen strength. The relatively low rate in the US is transferring the dollar to behave more and more like a carry trade. "Sluggish stocks point to yen and dollar buying on risk aversion," said Saburo

 

Forex - Risk aversion remains high in currencies after weak data and lower stock markets
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 09:49:31 GMT

Forex News and Events: The Dollar fell against the Japanese yen on Monday, as weak US manufacturing data deepened worries about the global economy that worldwide leaders ended a weekend meeting with few concrete proposals for dealing with this year's downturn. The Euro slipped versus the Dollar in a choppy session, but was off its lows for the day, as risk aversion remained elevated on news Japan's economy slid into recession in Q3. Further weighing on the market came after record low report

 

Asia Session
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:50:02 GMT

The US Dollar was again a beneficiary of the prevalent risk aversion amidst the reality that no new plans would come out of the G20 meeting. With global economies facing certain recession and US stocks on the receiving end of a bashing, the speculation is that investors are buying safer haven US assets, thus pushing the Buck higher versus the Euro and the Yen. USD/JPY bottomed out early in Asian trading at 96.22, and slowly but surely drove to 96.79 high in very light trading. EUR/USD began

 

Stock markets drifting towards recent lows
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 08:31:17 GMT

Quote: ‘Weep not for little Leonie, Abducted by a French Marquis! Though loss of honour was a wrench, Just think how it’s improved her French’ Harry Graham (1874-1936) The News: Minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November meeting have a sense of urgency on the destruction of household wealth. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 05:30 JP October Tokyo Department Store Sales –8.4% Y/Y, Nationwide –6.8%, versus –4.6% and –4.7% September.

 

US Dollar: Leaving the Mess for Obama
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:07:07 GMT

IS THE DOLLAR RALLY OVER? Since the summer, the US dollar has staged a remarkable rally, but with manufacturing data surprising to the upside and the US dollar giving back its gains today, everyone is wondering whether the dollar rally is over. The British pound, which has seen one of the most severe decline this month rose close to 2 percent on little to no news. For some market watchers, this may represent currencies that have become overstretched but in our opinion all signs still point to

 

Dow Jones Industrials, a final downleg?
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 06:49:31 GMT

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is another of the financial markets that has been ranging, in this case since the Oct 10th low at 7883. Though trade from that low is seen as a correction (wave 4 in the fall from the May high at 13137), there is scope for further wide ranging before the new lows are seen (within wave 5). May also be forming a large pennant/triangle (see “ideal” scenario in red on daily chart below), with the series of 3 wave moves in both directions since the 7883 low adding

 

GBPUSD: Trading the U.K. Consumer Price Index
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 06:00:24 GMT

Inflation in the U.K. is anticipated to pull back from a record high as economists forecast the consumer price index to fall to 4.8% from 5.2% in September. Trading the News: U.K. Consumer Prices What’s Expected Time of release: 11/18/2008 09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD Expected: 4.8% Previous: 5.2% Impact of U.K. Consumer Prices on GBPUSD over the last 3 months

 

FXI China ETF Looking Strong
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 05:36:00 GMT

While we have discussed the relatively strong chart patterns in the EWZ, EEM and GDX vis-a-vis the SPYs, for instance, the iShares China, ETF (AMEX: FXI) just might have more going for it than any of the others. Does this mean that the Chinese economy is about to boom again at double-digit growth? Highly unlikely. But from a near term technical perspective, the "sling-shot effect" in the aftermath of a 74% decline in value from its Oct. 2007 peak at 73.17 to its Oct. 2008 low at 19.35, coupled

 

Daily Market Outlook
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:54:31 GMT

Market Review - 17/11/2008 22:10 GMT Japanese yen falls as Japan's economy enters its first recession since 2001 The greenback rose against the Japanese yen from 95.87 to 97.56 after the release of Japan’s GDP data which showed a decrease of 0.1% in the last quarter after the drop of 0.9% in Q2, confirming Japan's economy had entered its first recession since 2001. Euro, aussie and sterling rose versus the Japanese unit from 120.20 to 123.91, from 61.04 to 64.11 and from 140.51 to 146.45

 

Citibank to Cut 50 000 Jobs, Economic Worries Persist
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:09:17 GMT

Citibank to Cut 50 000 Jobs, Economic Worries Persist U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was broadly weaker as most majors led by the Pound were able to rebound as US stocks initially rallied. Ongoing Economic concerns and fears of a deep recession lead to a late sell off and Dollar losses were pared. Supporting the USD was ongoing commodity weakness. October Industrial Production surprised to the upside recovering from a -2.8% plunge last month to post a +1.3% rise. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ

 

U.S. Forex Market Commentary
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:10:50 GMT

EURO The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.2510 level and was capped around the $1.2595 level.  The National Association of Business Economists released a survey that concludes the U.S. economy will shrink 2.6% in Q4 and another 1.3% in Q1, exacerbating the current economic recession in the U.S.  Group of Twenty officials convened in Washington, D.C. this weekend and issued a communiqué that read “Against this

 

New York Session
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 22:08:54 GMT

The price action in the NY session was on the light side as correlations between FX and stocks broke down some.  US stocks plunged more than -2.5% as a last minute selloff capped what was an otherwise choppy trading day.  The economic data out of  the US were mixed as the NY Empire index came in at a horrible -25.4 (with weak details to boot) while industrial production increased much more than expected (though this was related to a post-hurricane bounce).  Equities made a

 

Dollar Hangs Tight on GM Risk
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:13:27 GMT

Signs of stability in the US manufacturing sector has failed to turn around the market's risk appetite. Although the US dollar has weakened marginally against all of the major currencies, if US stocks continue to sell off, we could see the dollar regain strength. Will the US government allow GM to fail? The fate of General Motors will be the biggest event risk until the end of the month. In my opinion, the US government will not allow GM to fail. President elect Barack Obama has already

 

Japan is officially in Recession; Risk Aversion Seen Intact
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 12:18:37 GMT

The dollar strengthens in the Asian and European opening on surprising data from Japan that officially went into recession. The economic outlook continued to worsen as Japan joined the euro zone in recession, while U.S. data showed a record fall in retail sales in October. Traders are seeing the greenback as a safe heaven and the gloomy economic data triggered some buys on the dollar. Nevertheless, the futures in the US were trading in positive territory while the EZ trade balance deficit

 

Forex - G20 meeting ended without concrete results and overall plan to stimulate the economy
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 11:04:49 GMT

Forex News and Events: The Dollar and the Yen rose against the Euro on Friday as investors were looking for safe-haven amid a deteriorating global economic outlook and losses on Wall Street. This partly reversed losses in the previous session triggered by a more than 6% jump in US stocks. The Dollar remained supported despite data showing sales at US retailers suffered a record decline in October. A separate report showed US consumer confidence rose unexpectedly in November but remained at

 

Asia Session
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:19:14 GMT

The new week started out with a much stronger Yen as the G20 meeting ended with all members nodding their collective heads that the global economy was bad, but with no real plan of action to combat it. Although not many traders expected a concise blue print of measures to fix the problem, poor liquidity and a poor US showing in equities on Friday helped push the USD/JPY to an open about 50 pips lower at 96.55, subsequently followed by a 95.93 low. As the day continued and Japan's Nikkei

 

G20 leaders agree that each country should come up with its own ideas on economic incentives
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:21:04 GMT

Quote: ‘I am convinced that the best service a retired gentleman can perform is to turn in his tongue along with his suit, and to mothball his opinions.’ Omar Bradley (1893-1981) The News: G20 leaders agree that each country should come up with its own ideas on economic incentives. The Numbers: Greenwich Mean Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. (23:50) JP Q3 GDP –0.1% Q/Q, -0.4% Y/Y, Deflator –1.6%, versus revised –0.9%, -3.7% and –1.6% Q2; in recession. (23:50) JP

 

Enthusiasm for Chinese stimulus package only short-lived
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 10:28:23 GMT

Highlights “Troubled Assets Relief Program”: re-designated Bank of England sees deflationary risks, announces further interest rate cuts Germany and eurozone are in a recession Australian central bank intervenes in forex market to support AUD Pound nears all-time lows Financial markets cheered up initially at the beginning of the week after the announcement that China was launching a fiscal stimulus package and would spend the gigantic sum of Rmb 4,000bn (about €460bn) over the next two years

 

Markets Cave Near Close
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 06:10:14 GMT

We certainly had a topsy-turvy, volatile session today with the indices moving in three distinct waves on Friday. In the morning they gapped lower at the opening and moved down steadily until they reached yesterday's late reaction lows just under 1180 on the Nasdaq 100 and down around the 870 range on the S&P 500. When support near those levels held they came on again in the afternoon and rallied back to actually take out the highs with less than an hour to go, but rolled over very

 

Most markets have kept in ‘triangle' consolidation patterns within October's large ranges
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:57:50 GMT

Overview Most markets have kept in ‘triangle’ consolidation patterns within October’s large ranges. Yen crosses, equity indices and yields dipped to the lower edge of trading bands Thursday but then rallied, obviously not quite ready for more dramatic falls. Or might this, the third biggest ever rally for US indices, have been helped along with a nudge and a wink? Who knows, but what we can say is that the interbank market is still completely seized up and that awareness of the need to

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 07:54:00 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :           1.2627 Updating time :19 Nov 2008 06:30 GMT Euro's nr term sideways trading is likely to continue n although marginal gain to 1.2650/60 can not be ruled out, as outlook remains consolidative, res at 1.2701 shud hold fm here. Below 1.2606 wud bring weakness twd 1.2566 but sup at 1.2512 shud remain intact n yield rebound. Stand aside for now n buy dips for day trade... Range Forecast 1.2610 / 1.2641

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 06:50:08 GMT

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:               +96.60+ Updating time : 19 Nov 2008 05:51 GMT Despite cross-inspired retreat fm 97.12/16, as dlr has found buying interest at 96.33, further con solidation inside 95.87-98.30 is seen with upside bias for gain to indicated obj. but reckon 97.42/56 res area wud hold in Asia. Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only below 95.87 sup wud abort daily bullishness... Range Forecast

 

Daily Technical Outlook - Wednesday 11.19.2008
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 05:13:24 GMT

EURUSD The Euro continues to consolidate into a narrow range, closing slightly lower versus the greenback on yesterday. Intraday support is seen at 1.2525 backed by 1.2420 and recent bottom at 1.2330/35. Near term resistance starts at 1.2740 followed by 1.2800 and 1.2920. The daily studies are slightly bearish and a potential break below the support at 1.2525 may encourage further weakness towards 1.2330. On the upside, a break of 1.2740 is needed to re-establish recent uptrend and aim towards

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 04:07:39 GMT

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK :        1.4943 Updating time : 17 Nov 2008 04:23 GMT Despite cable's brief fall to 1.4900, failure to penetrate this sup n subsequent bounce suggest consolidation abv there wud be seen with mild up- side bias for gain to 1.4980, however, only break of 1.5055 wud signal upmove has resumed, 1.5093. Below 1.4900 wud yield another corrective fall to 1.4860/70 b4 up. Stand aside for now... Range Forecast +1.4940 / 1.4980+ Resistance/Support

 

The Daily Forecaster
Wed, 19 Nov 2008 03:16:58 GMT

. Bias:               I suspect a dip to maximum 1.2177-92 but from there a rally is indicated

 

Go short EUR/USD , EUR/CHF - long GBP/CAD
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 17:56:12 GMT

• We recommend selling EUR/USD spot at 1.2650 for a move to 1.2050 (our short-term financial model estimate, see chart 1) and with a stop at 1.2850 . The recent decline in oil prices has not been reflected in a lower EUR/USD spot rate (see chart 2). Moreover, we believe relative yields will move in favour of the dollar, as markets, in our view, still price too high a probability for just a moderate slowdown in the euro zone. While we see the Fed as close to the end of its monetary easing

 

Daily Technical Outlook - Tuesday 11.18.2008
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 07:43:29 GMT

EURUSD The climb to 1.2740 on yesterday doesn't provide any clue regarding further price action as the Euro continues to consolidate and look for direction. Intraday resistance is formed at 1.2740 followed by 1.2800 and 1.2920. Support starts at 1.2600 backed by 1.2525 and 1.2420. Daily sentiment is neutral while intraday studies are slightly bullish at the time of this writing. If the Euro manages to regain some strength, a rally past yesterday's high will be possible, but resistance into the

 

Recession in Europe, Weak US Retail Figures
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 06:22:32 GMT

Last week’s currency trading review The Dollar had a volatile week but gained against most currencies as the world economic picture continued to deteriorate. The sharp fall in October Retail Sales by 2.8% was worse than the market was expecting and confirmed that the US is heading into a recession. Also in the news Treasury Secretary Paulson modified the TARP $700 Billion program away from toxic assets and more towards freeing up consumer credit. The G20 met over the weekend and released a

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 05:57:42 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :           1.2623 Updating time :18 Nov 2008 04:17 GMT Euro's recovery after finding buying interest at 1.2601 suggests further consolidation abv there wud be seen n gain to 1.2660/65 cannot be ruled out b4 decline fm 1.2742 (y'day's high) resumes later. Stand aside n look to sell on further recovery. Below sup at 1.2601 wud extend marginal weakness but reckon 1.2560/65 wud hold fm here... Range Forecast 1.2605 / 1.2645

 

The Daily Forecaster
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 03:23:08 GMT

. Bias:              Mixed - waiting for breaks

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Tue, 18 Nov 2008 04:05:57 GMT

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:               +96.50+ Updating time : 18 Nov 2008 00:06 GMT Dlr's cross-inspired fall fm 97.25 (o/n NY high) suggests consolidation with downside bias wud be seen in Asia for weakness to 95.87, below there wud extend to 95.50/60 b4 rebound due to near term o/sold condition. Sell on minor recovery for 96.00 or buy on next fall for 96.20 but 96.70/75 shud cap upside... Range Forecast +96.24 / 96.60+

 

Daily Technical Outlook - Monday 11.17.2008
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:45:38 GMT

EURUSD The Euro failed to hold its Friday gains over the weekend and reached lows into the 1.2525 support zone earlier today. First resistance is seen at 1.2625 followed by 1.2685 and 1.2800. Support backs 1.2525 at 1.2420 and 1.2335. Hourly studies are slightly bullish due to the bounce on the 1.2525 support and a rally towards 1.2685/1.2700 is possible, filling the opening gap. Current quote is 1.2589 @07:40 GMT Support levels: 1.2525, 1.2420 and 1.2335. Resistance levels: 1.2625, 1.2685 and

 

Weekly Currency Outlook
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 07:27:50 GMT

Week 47 of 2008 EURUSD (1.2686) EURUSD is expected to continue its downward trend this week and break of 1.2600 will set 1.2500 as next target for EURUSD, break of 1.2500 will take it towards 1.2320 level. But before doing so, we might see some upward move towards 1.2820 level from EURUSD which might further extend towards 1.2930 level. In general selling EURUSD for anything over 1.2800 seems a very good trading opportunity during this week.

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 05:56:01 GMT

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK :         1.4759 Updating time : 17 Nov 2008 04:23 GMT Cable's rebound after finding buying interest at 1.4675/80 suggests choppy trading abv 1.4646 (NZ) wud continue ahead of European opening n correction of nr term decline fm 1.4962 (Friday's high) to 1.4810/20 cannot be ruled out b4 selloff. Stand aside n look to sell for day trade as be- low 1.4675/80 needed for re-test of 1.4646 n 1.4600 Range Forecast 1.4735 / 1.4775

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 04:07:35 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :           1.2556 Updating time :17 Nov 2008 02:32 GMT Euro's rebound fm 1.2512 in part due to cross buying vs yen suggests an intra-day low has been formed n consolidation abv there wud be seen with mild upside bias for gain to 1.2590/00 but 1.2630 shud hold n yield retreat later. Below 1.2512 wud extend near term decline fm 1.2857 to 1.2480 n then 1.2450. Stand aside for now Range Forecast 1.2535 / 1.2585

 

The Daily Forecaster
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 03:26:54 GMT

. Bias:              Mixed - waiting for breaks though 1.4700-10 needs to hold to allow a stronger recovery

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Mon, 17 Nov 2008 02:33:51 GMT

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:               96.71 Updating time : 17 Nov 2008 01:26 GMT Dlr's rebound fm 95.87 (Aust.) in part due to cross unwinding suggests an intra-day low has been formed n risk is seen for gain to 96.90/00 n possi- bly 97.30, however, abv 97.76 is needed to signal retreat fm 98.30 has ended. Exit intra-day short n stand aside. Below 96.00 /10 wud bring another fall to 95.87 n 95.50/60... Range Forecast

 

Time for change? Not yet
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 16:18:04 GMT

• We revised our FX forecasts in-between our regular forecast updates on 24 October; see Revised FX Forecasts: G10 and EM. Most notably, we raised all our short-term USD forecasts and pencilled in more JPY and CHF strengthening, along with more SEK and NOK short-term weakness. As risk sentiment was deteriorating sharply and no obvious triggers for an end to this was in sight, we considered it likely that things could worsen further. The rapid rise in risk aversion has stopped - albeit remains

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 08:31:45 GMT

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK :         1.4832 Updating time : 14 Nov 2008 08:24 GMT Although cable has retreated after intra-day anticipated rebound n further consolidation below 1.4932 res wud be seen, downside wud be ltd to 1.47 80/90 n yield another rise but abv 1.4910 needed to extend nr term upmove fm 1.4560 to 1.4932. Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, only below 1.4774 sup wud risk weakness to 1.4750... Range Forecast 1.4810 / 1.4855

 

Daily Technical Outlook - Friday 11.14.2008
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 07:45:32 GMT

EURUSD The Euro rallied on yesterday, recovering 460 points after testing bids at 1.2390, forming a reversal pattern on the daily studies. The upside is now on focus as long as intraday support at 1.2640/50 remains intact. Resistance is seen at 1.2850 followed by 1.2950 and 1.3050. A downward trendline resistance is formed by the recent daily highs and is now seen around 1.2835. A sustained break of this resistance region of 1.2830-50 will be bullish for the Euro, confirming the reversal.

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 06:55:21 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :           1.2726 Updating time :14 Nov 2008 06:40 GMT Although intra-day retreat to 1.2705 suggests y'day's rally is still being retraced n marginal weakness cannot be ruled out, downside shud be ltd to 1.2665/70 n yield rebound but break of 1.2785/90 is needed to confirm low is made. Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, break wud risk 1.2633/35 b4 up... Range Forecast 1.2700 / 1.2750 Resistance/Support R:

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 06:43:07 GMT

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK :         1.4822 Updating time : 14 Nov 2008 04:40 GMT Cable's strg retreat fm 1.4910 suggests choppy trading below Australian high at 1.4932 wud conti- nue n risk is seen for pullback to 1.4774 but as a temp. low has been made y'day at 1.4560, reckon 1.4720/30 wud limit downside n yield rebound later. Exit intra-day long n stand aside. Abv 1.4910 brings another corrective rise to 1.4932 n 1.4970.. Range Forecast 1.4800 / 1.4850

 

The Daily Forecaster
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:45:35 GMT

. Bias:              I look for 1.1932-58 to cap for losses below 1.1774-00 to extend losses to 1.1666 and 1.1550

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:15:12 GMT

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK:               96.89 Updating time : 14 Nov 2008 02:18 GMT Dlr has fallen again after meeting minor selling at 97.35/40 indicates further consolidation below y'day's high at 98.30 in store but below 98.60 need ed to abort daily bullishness n bring retrace. of near term rise fm 94.48 to 96.10/20. Abv 97.35/40 yields rebound to 97.70 n then 98. 10 (Aust.). Stand aside n hold long for day trade.. Range

 

Daily Technical Outlook - Thursday 11.13.2008
Thu, 13 Nov 2008 07:51:56 GMT

EURUSD Interim support on the 1.2400 mark is on focus at the time of this report. Key support formed by recent lows at 1.2330/35 is seen a bit lower and a potential break will be extremely bearish for the Euro, opening the 1.1650-1.2300 zone for further decline within the upcoming weeks. Another important support level is formed at 1.2190 by the 50% retracement of the entire .8345-1.6035 move and this may cause an important bounce if reached. Daily sentiment is bearish. Current quote is 1.2405

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:13:16 GMT

INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                +95.95+ Updating time : 13 Nov 2008 03:38 GMT Dlr's retreat after meeting renewed selling interest at 96.10 suggests consolidation with down- side bias wud be seen for weakness twd 95.20/30 but below 95.00 is needed to signal correction fm 94.48 (y'day's low) has ended, bring re-test of this sup. Sell on minor recovery with stop as indicated n only abv 96.40/45 wud abort daily

 

The Daily Forecaster
Thu, 13 Nov 2008 03:12:53 GMT

. Bias:              I feel this will be a down day towards 1.2328-47 but resistance at 1.2615 (max 1.2720-50) must cap

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Thu, 13 Nov 2008 02:30:08 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :           +1.2485+ Updating time :12 Nov 2008 23:45 GMT Euro has penetrated o/n NY low at 1.2466 on re- newed cross selling vs yen n recent decline shud resume after consolidation for re-test of 1.2435 (Aust.) n then 1.2400/10 but loss of momentum has increased risk of a corrective rebound later. Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, abv wud signal intra-day low is made n risk 1.2560/70.. Range Forecast +1.2470 /

 

Daily Technical Outlook - Wednesday 11.12.2008
Wed, 12 Nov 2008 07:47:51 GMT

EURUSD The downside break out of the triangle formation renews the bearish bias and the Euro may fall lower towards the key support at 1.2335, if current resistance region of 1.2650-1.2675 will remain intact. Interim support is formed at 1.2525. The daily studies are bearish while hourlies are bullish at the time of this report, due to the current pullback. Current quote is 1.2616 @07:40 GMT Support levels: 1.2585, 1.2525 and 1.2335. Resistance levels: 1.2650/75, 1.2790, 1.2900 and 1.3050.

 

The Daily Forecaster
Wed, 12 Nov 2008 04:01:51 GMT

. Bias:              Would prefer higher confirmed by breach of 98.30-65 else below 97.14 sees 95.70-00 at least