Japanese Yen Forecast Turns Bullish as S&P 500 Tumbles
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:01:24 GMT

 

Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 07.06.09
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:57:00 GMT

US Dollar Still Range Bound, But Risk Aversion Creates Bullish Potential Euro Volatility Likely as Central Bank Delivers Interest Rate Decision Japanese...

 

US Dollar Still Range Bound, But Risk Aversion Creates Bullish Potential
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 18:49:35 GMT

The US dollar ended the past week as the strongest of the majors, but it certainly wasn’t due to fundamental reasons.

 

Euro, British Pound Lag as Euro-zone, UK Data Highlight Lingering Recession
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:56:12 GMT

• US Dollar, Japanese Yen Mixed on Low-Volume Trading • Swiss Franc Remains Range-Bound vs. Euro as Swiss CPI Signals Deflation • Australian Dollar, Canadian...

 

New Zealand Dollar Selling Ahead If Stock Markets Turn Lower
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 17:01:41 GMT

 

Australian Dollar At Risk as Investors Weigh Outlook For Future Policy
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:59:16 GMT

 

Canadian Dollar To Weaken Further As Labor Market Falters
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:57:52 GMT

 

Swiss Franc May Fall If Bulls Give Up Fight Against Intervention
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:56:14 GMT

 

British Pound May Remain Under Pressure Ahead of BoE Rate Decision
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:54:15 GMT

 

Euro Volatility Likely as Central Bank Delivers Interest Rate Decision
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:50:59 GMT

 

Weekly Classical Technical Outlook: Euro & Aussie 100-Week SMAs to be Watched Closely
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 15:06:58 GMT

Euro price action remains choppy; 100-Week SMA key Dollar/Yen eyes retest of critical trend lows Cable bearish reversal week could open deeper setbacks Dollar/Swiss...

 

AUD/USD: Trading the Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:29:58 GMT

 

Overnight Interest Rate Update 07.03.09
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:23:00 GMT

Current Yesterday USD 0.26688 0.26813 GBP 0.54750 0.55000 EUR 0.26625 0.27250 JPY 0.12375 0.12625 CHF 0.08667 0.09500 AUD 3.09250 3.10000 CAD 0.19000 0.19500 NZD 2.28750 2.31500

 

Libor and Official Interest rates are at their narrowest
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 14:46:18 GMT

Overview Interbank and Treasury yields are mostly lower again as we ponder what comes next. Spreads between Libor and Official Interest rates are at their narrowest since the crisis erupted on our radars, pushing some money market futures contracts to new record highs (Eurodollar 99.4625 and Euribor 99.050). This dragged two-year benchmark yields down, German ones dropped 60 basis points to 1.215% over the last four weeks, US ones –50 bp to 0.9775%, and Japanese to 0.250% their lowest since

 

Risk appetite heading for the exit
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 13:30:35 GMT

Markets returned to risk aversion this week after another disappointing US employment report. Stock markets and commodities lost some of their recent gains and the Greenback recovered. Crude Oil had a rollercoaster of a week rallying above $73 early in the week on what turned out to be a rogue trader in London who during the overnight session on Tuesday drove Brent Crude up by more than $2 after having bought a reported 9.000 lots. WTI Crude followed suit and reached $73.38 before weekly

 

The Dollar gains as the markets tumble and investors seek a safe haven
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:53:06 GMT

The greenback headed for a gain against the euro as rising unemployment in the U.S. and Europe added to speculation that the global recession will be longer than thought, boosting demand for the relative safety of the American currency. The British pound was set for a decline against the greenbak on speculation a U.K. report today 8:30am, GMT will show the service industry in Europe’s second largest economy contracted in June, suggesting the worst of the worldwide slump is far from over and

 

Forex - Risky Assets take a hit on U.S. Payrolls
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:12:01 GMT

Forex News and Events: The dollar rose against major currencies yesterday after bleak U.S. jobs data renewed concerns about the economy and enhanced the greenback's safe-haven appeal. The Euro was down 1.1 percent at $1.4002, retreating from $1.4201 hit on Wednesday, its highest level since early June. Adding to pressure on the Euro were comments from the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet that Euro-zone activity would likely remain weak for the rest of the year. The dollar

 

London Session
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:16:44 GMT

EUR/USD is trading very little changed from its US close. The move back into USDs that was prompted by the disappointing US payrolls data was extended into Asian hours initially. However, EUR buyers emerged below 1.3950 pushing the EUR moderately higher and back to the 1.4000 level. Final Eurozone June services PMI registered a better than expected 44.7, soothing the economic outlook a touch. However, this data does not change the view that the pace of activity in the Eurozone continued to

 

Base metals correct previous gains
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:34:04 GMT

Headlines Weak U.S. labor market data and previous price manipulation weight on crude Gold eases reacting on stronger dollar Base metals correct previous gains

 

Dollar Soars as its Global Reserve Currency Status Returns to the Forefront
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:32:27 GMT

The Dollar soared yesterday against most of its currency pairs, as its global reserve currency status returned to the forefront. This was due to weak U.S. unemployment figures, as Unemployment in the U.S. rose far higher than analysts had forecast. This spurred demand for safe-haven currencies, such as the USD and JPY. As a result of the strong USD, Crude Oil prices also tumbled. Today, investors should continue trading the USD, EUR, JPY, and Gold, as large profits will be made on market

 

USD and JPY have strengthened
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:03:19 GMT

Key news Trading has been dominated by yesterday’s bleak employment report, but there has only been modest movement since market close in Europe yesterday. USD and JPY have strengthened and SEK has continued to weaken overnight albeit only slightly. Asian stock markets mostly in red this morning but have recovered from earlier lows. China wants to discuss global reserve currency at next week’s G8 summit. Markets Overnight Trading has been dominated by yesterday’s bleak employment report in the

 

US regulators close seven banks yesterday, six in Illinois, bringing total to 52 so far this year
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:54:45 GMT

Quote: ‘When there’s no future How can there be sin We’re the flowers in the dustbin We’re the poison in your human machine We’re the future Your future God save the Queen.’ The S*x Pistols The News: US regulators close seven banks yesterday, six in Illinois, bringing total to 52 so far this year. The Numbers: British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 08:15 CH June CPI (-0.2% to +0.3% M/M, -1.3% to –0.8% Y/Y, versus +0.2% and –1.0% May). 09:30 GB June Services

 

Asia Session
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:22:36 GMT

The last day of the Asian week ended in a dynamic fashion right out of the gate as the Euro extended losses against the US Dollar as it collapsed almost 175 pips in a wave of stop loss selling in a thinned market. After yesterday's poor US employment data cast a dark cloud on the hopes of an early emergence from the global recession, the Greenback was bought in a hasty fashion as investors looked for safety as they fled riskier assets. If you didn't look at a chart after yesterday's Asia close

 

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Up Sharply as Disappointing US NFPs Stoke Flight-to-Safety
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:14:33 GMT

Euro Down as ECB Leaves Door Open to Further Rate Cuts Swiss Franc Gain vs. Euro Presents SNB Intervention Risks Through Friday British Pound Falls Against US Dollar, Yen as UK Construction PMI Slips US Dollar, Japanese Yen Up Sharply as Disappointing US NFPs Stoke Flight-to-Safety Clear indications from this morning’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report that the pace of job losses had accelerated, rather than slowed, was the driver of price action for the markets. Indeed, the news helped to

 

3/7/2009 - The Current Market Sentiment
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:11:32 GMT

The disappointing release of June US non-farm pay roll has hurt the investors risk appetite strongly today causing a sell off in the equities markets as the data have shown adding 467k lost jobs out of the farming sectors and an increasing of the unemployment to 9.5% in June. It looks that the recovery is really halting and unreliable and the current economic situation can exacerbate. The unexpected huge amount of lost jobs because of this credit crisis show that the business confidence is

 

China Calls for G8 USD Agenda
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:57:33 GMT

China Calls for G8 USD Agenda U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot as global equity markets continued to rally. News that China is looking for Global Reserve Currencies to be on the Agenda at the next G8 meeting added to the downside pressure. Data was mixed with ADP Private Unemployment falling -473K in June vs. -393K forecast. May Pending Home sales at 0.1% vs. 0.0% forecast. June ISM Manufacturing climbed to 44.8 vs. 42.8 previously. Crude Oil closes down $0.58 to close the day at

 

China Calls for G8 USD Agenda
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:54:21 GMT

China Calls for G8 USD Agenda U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was on the back foot as global equity markets continued to rally. News that China is looking for Global Reserve Currencies to be on the Agenda at the next G8 meeting added to the downside pressure. Data was mixed with ADP Private Unemployment falling -473K in June vs. -393K forecast. May Pending Home sales at 0.1% vs. 0.0% forecast. June ISM Manufacturing climbed to 44.8 vs. 42.8 previously. Crude Oil closes down $0.58 to close the day at

 

Daily Market Outlook
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:49:28 GMT

  Market Review - 02/07/2009 21:16 GMT    Dollar and Japanese yen rise broadly as weak U.S. jobs data increased demand for safe-haven assets Dollarrallied against a basket of currencies except Japanese yen after thekey monthly U.S. employment report showed employers shed 467,000 jobsin June, more than consensus forecast of 363,000 cut, while theunemployment rate rose to 9.5%, the highest since 1983, renewingwidespread concerns over the pace of the economic recovery’s pace.

 

New York Session
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:16:57 GMT

It was another exciting session in NY early on as the buck extended overnight gains on unbridled risk aversion. The overnight comments from China that they did not ask the G-8 to discuss the USD reserve status at the meeting next week provided the spark and a horrendous NFP report did the rest. US nonfarm payrolls plunged -467K in June, well below the consensus call for a -365K drop but more in line with our forecast of -410K. This sent equities reeling and the yen crosses were promptly sold

 

U.S. Forex Market Commentary
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:08:07 GMT

EURO The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3990 level and was capped around the $1.4155 level.  The common currency gaved back most of yesterday’s gains ahead of the long holiday weekend in the U.S.  As expected, the European Central Bank kept monetary policy unchanged and ECB President Trichet reported interest rates remain “appropriate.”  Trichet also said recent economic data indicate the global

 

Daily Currency Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:39:52 GMT

EUR/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas Unemployment in the Euro Zone and the US have reached a parity, both are now at 9.5%. The Euro's fret that the German short work week really disguises their true unemployment rate, while the real US unemployment is understated because private contractors, who replaced employees, are not accurately measured in the numbers. Equities are trading lower on the lack of positive economic recovery news and that is helping the dollar. The initial nudge to the USD in

 

U.S. Update: Dollar stronger
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:25:32 GMT

What happened in Asia Dollar regained the upside during Asian session, as risk aversion return to markets after a report raising doubts over Russia's banking sector prompted players to sell the risk-sensitive unit. Gbp remained under selling pressure, while Japanese yen managed to hold the 96.00 level against dollar. Currencies traded in narrow ranges ahead of early European morning data. What happened in Europe The Euro zone unemployment rate has increased to a ten year high of 9.5% in May

 

Dollar rises as the market are down and China still intends to use the greenback
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:12:05 GMT

The greenback gained after a Chinese Foreign Ministry official said he hoped the Dollar would remain stable and was “not aware” of a plan to discuss a new reserve currency at next week’s Group of Eight meeting. The greenback rose against the euro after falling yesterday when Reuters reported that China wanted to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at the G-8 summit in Italy. “We hope that as the main reserve currency the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar will be stable,” China’s

 

London Session
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:57:33 GMT

On a morning which was overshadowed by the approach of the ECB policy decision and the US June payroll data, it was comments from China that caused much of the price action. The USD climbed after Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei stated his hope that the USD will remain stable and commented that he was not aware that China had pushed for a discussion of reserve currencies to be on the agenda at this month's G8 meeting. Speculation regarding the latter had pushed EUR/USD towards the top

 

Forex - Markets are on hiatus ahead of ECB rate decision and early NFP's
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:01:23 GMT

Forex News and Events: After having hit a high at 1.4201 yesterday on reports the Vice-finance minister of China wasn’t aware of his government’s request to discuss use of the IMF’s SDR as an alternative. This doesn’t come as a surprise on the part of the Chinese government as we all know they are the largest holders of foreign exchange reserves and U.S Treasuries and have been very vocal about the massive spending on the part of the U.S government and it’s inherent instability for the

 

The up-thrust top should within a few sessions start to deliver further downside pressure
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:47:11 GMT

SEB STERLING/DOLLAR: "Downside risk still high. The up-thrust top should within a few sessions start to deliver further downside pressure, especially so as there also is a visible bearish divergence in momentum indicators. Passing $1.6380 will be the trigger for the exit of the top formation." NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Red flag alert. The failure above the rising wedge created a dark cloud cover candle. The market has thereafter continued sliding in a rather constructive wave count

 

Higher U.S. gasoline inventories push crude below 70 $/b level
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:58:32 GMT

Headlines Higher U.S. gasoline inventories push crude below 70 $/b level Gold responds to greenback movement Base metals recover with nickel leading the pack Brent and Distillates On Wednesday crude experienced a volatile session paring its gains after closely followed weekly U.S. EIA data showed a sharp rise in stocks of petroleum products even if crude inventories fell for the fourth consecutive week. But this was overshadowed by the gains in gasoline, diesel and heating oil. Crude stocks

 

Asia Session
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:12:34 GMT

The US Dollar took a few steps out of the hole it was in on Wednesday after China once again doubted the fitness of the Greenback as the sole global reserve currency. And so the verbal tug of war out of China continued, with news that China would want to debate the potential for an alternative global reserve currency at next weeks G8 meeting, and then today the Chinese vice foreign minister denying the claims and exclaiming that the dollar was in fact the premier currency of the global economy

 

US Non-farm Payrolls, ECB and Riksbank rate decision
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:06:21 GMT

Key news US bond yield curve steeper, equities higher, FX markets stable With three major events in Scandinavia, Euroland and the US there is ample room for large swings on the market today Markets Overnight Super-Thursday has finally arrived. With the Riksbank, the ECB and US non-farm payrolls data, there is ample opportunity for large swings on the market. Incidentally, US Treasury yields have almost returned to the levels before the huge jump after the last release of non-farm payrolls

 

US June vehicle sales –28% to 9.69 million units, Domestic 7.2M
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:46:15 GMT

Quote: ‘I demand Jack Straw pays the £7B he squandered on the Iraq war we didn’t want.’ Russell Brand (1975-) The News: US June vehicle sales –28% to 9.69 million units, Domestic 7.2M. The Numbers: British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 08:30 SE Swedish Riksbank decides on rates (UBS says –25 bp from 0.50%). 09:25 GB Bank of England’s Besley speaks at financial regulation conference. 09:30 GB June Construction PMI (45.3 to 47.5 versus 45.9 May). 09:30 GB Bank

 

Daily Currency Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:23:05 GMT

EUR/USD Commentary and Trade Ideas Once again the pair is knocking on the door of the high ground above 1.41, and if we spend a little time consolidating the gains, there might be more. Forget the reason or the explanations for the move, markets often do what they do because they can. We are currently trading at 1.4120, and looking at the chart, there has to be stops above 1.4140. In a report that receives scant attention, US Treasury receipts from economic activity in June of 2009 are

 

Dollar at Risk of Breakdown
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:28:59 GMT

EURUSD bullish above 1.4000 GBPUSD wave ii of diagonal may be done USDCAD 5 waves complete; headed back to 1.11-1.12 USDCHF bearish below 1.0900 Euro / US Dollar I wrote yesterday that “trading above 1.4140 shifts odds in favor of the bullish count in which the decline from 1.4340 is an A-B-C correction that will be fully retraced. Under this count, the rally from 1.3750 is wave 5 of an ending diagonal from 1.2454. The rally from 1.3750 itself is unfolding as a diagonal and price must stay

 

New Recovery High for TBT
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:44:35 GMT

Let’s notice that the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE: TBT) has recovered all of yesterday’s weakness and in fact has climbed to a marginal new recovery high this morning on the way to my next optimal target zone of 52.50/80. The better-than-expected ADB Employment guestimate ahead of the government’s report tomorrow morning, in addition to the burst in oil prices (after last evening’s more-bullish-than-expected ADP inventory data), likely have scared the bond traders a

 

Up-Session Gives Back Vast Majority of Early Gains
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:53:42 GMT

The indices had an up-day but were sharply higher in the morning and gave back the vast majority of their gains by the end of the session. The morning rollover continued into afternoon, and the indices moved steadily down into the close at the afternoon lows. The day started out with a gap up, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) moved sharply higher to just under 1500, reaching 1498. The S&P 500 (SPX) at that point reached right near 932. Both indices made nominal new rally highs, but after economic

 

2/7/2009 - The Current Market Sentiment
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:29:04 GMT

The US equities markets have opened up today putting pressure on the greenback but these stocks gains could not hold as the disappointing release of June US consumers confidence survey is still in the investors' minds and is not out of the current market sentiment affecting negatively on the risk appetite. Dow could just keep 57 points of gains at its closing.  US June ADP employment came worse than the market expectations of -411k at -473k which increased the market readiness of further

 

UK GDP Drops Fastest In 50 Years
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:20:58 GMT

UK GDP Drops Fastest In 50 Years U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) enjoyed gains as optimism was dampened by a dramatic slump in Consumer Confidence in June. Forecast at 55.4 vs. 54.9 previously, the 49.3 reading led to a sharp sell off in Oil which had hit Year highs in Asia. This in turn led to commodity currencies such as the CAD being sold. Crude Oil closes down $1.60 to close the day at $79.89. In US share markets, the Nasdaq was down 9 points or -0.49% and the Dow Jones was down -82 points or

 

Daily Market Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:36:22 GMT

Market Review - 01/07/2009 21:43      All times in GMT   Dollar falls broadly after China renews new reserve currency talk Dollar dropped against the single currency on Wednesday as a rise in global stocks and upbeat manufacturing activity data in Europe and China reduced demand for greenback and yen as safe haven currency. In addition, the Group of Eight sources said that China has asked to debate proposals for a new global reserve currency at next week’s G8 summit in

 

U.S. Forex Market Commentary
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:36:54 GMT

EURO The euro moved sharply higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4200 figure and was supported around the $1.4000 figure.   The common currency reached a three-week high following positive news from China’s manufacturing sector that had traders chasing risk.  The dollar has also been dented by China’s insistence that the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights program be expanded at the expense of dollar

 

New York Session
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 22:08:22 GMT

Thin market conditions in the NY session made for interesting moves. Risk was better bid early on as the positive Chinese manufacturing news permeated the marketplace. This has kept the JPY-crosses well supported and we would not be surprised to see both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY take out their respective 97.00 and 136.90 highs as we head into the overnight sessions. Economic data was mixed with the ISM manufacturing headline printing and in line result of 44.8 but showing improvement on the

 

USD lower as equity markets rally
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:33:53 GMT

USD: Lower, improving risk appetite and rising global equity markets JPY: Lower, Tankan manufacturing improves less than expected, CAPEX spending falls EUR: Higher, manufacturing PMI and German retail sales rise, ECB expected to hold policy steady GBP: Higher, manufacturing PMI rises to its highest level since last May CAD and AUD: AUD & CAD higher, Australia's building approvals fall, crude tops $71 Overview An interesting start to the second half of 2009 which finds the USD trading lower

 

U.S. Update: Dollar suffering employment data
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 16:05:43 GMT

What happened in Asia Following what happen in America, yen fell across the board reaching Y97.00 against dollar and Y136.60 against euro, as optimism return to markets past Tuesday in America. European currencies spent most of the session consolidating around yesterday’s lows, as investors remained reluctant to compromise positions ahead of U.S. employment data, and ECB policy statement. What happened in Europe Early in euro, U.K. manufacturing activity fell at its slowest pace in more than a

 

1/7/2009 - The Current Market Sentiment
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:18:54 GMT

The Greenback is still holding its gains across the broad after the disappointing release of June US consumers confidence survey could contain the market sentiment effecting negatively on the risk appetite. The figure came at just 49.3 and it was expected to get better to 57 after May jump to 54.9 from 44 in April which fueled the market optimism in the beginning of June but the collapse of June. Dow closed at 8447 losing 82 points after gaining in its first session this week by 1.08% after 2

 

The YEN declines versus the Dollar and the Euro on Tankan Report
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:54:18 GMT

The JPY dipped earlier after the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey showed sentiment among the largest manufacturers rose less than economists expected at -48 from an expected -58. “Japan’s economic situation is worse than expected,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Japan at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Tokyo. “Investors may try to err on the side of being cautious. That will lead to stock declines and prompt demand for the yen as a safe haven.” The

 

Crude oil again USD next week
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 19:59:51 GMT

 CLQ9 [ crude oil august 2009]  It closed on friday at 65.63.   It is just begining for downside for almost all of next week. see based at   62.5-62.00 as first downside target. -critical stop loss 67.40 -entry 65.6 *********************** contact tanuncj@yahoo.com

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:14:29 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY EUR/USD : +96.10+ Last Update At 03 Jul 2009 06:10 GMT Despite dlr's rebound after failing to penetrate y'day's NY low at 95.70, as price action fm there is viewed as a minor retracement of nr term cross- inspired selloff, reckon 96.27 (prev. sup) wud cap upside n yield another fall to said sup n 95.35. Sell on further rise with stop as indicated n only abv 95.50/55 wud abort intra-day bearishness. Range Forecast 95.85 / 96.10

 

Daily Technical Outlook
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:07:45 GMT

EURUSD Intra-day support on the 1.4100 failed to hold on yesterday and the pullback extended in the overnight trading to 1.2930, before recovering to 1.4000 at the time of this writing. Minor resistance is formed by the 1.4 handle and a breach above would open the more notable barrier at 1.4050/65 - formed by the weekly market open price. A close above the said level would keep both short and medium term studies bullish. However, the euro is facing difficulties on its attempts to establish

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:25:50 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD : 1.3996 Last Update At 03 Jul 2009 05:51 GMT Although euro has rebounded after the brief but sharp selloff to 1.3927 (Aust.) n further 'choppy' consolidation abv there is seen with near term upside bias, reckon 1.4015/20 wud limit gain n yield retreat later. Buy dips for 1.4010 or sell there for 1.3960 but only below 1.3927 confirms fall fm 1.4202 resumes. Range Forecast 1.3975 / 1.4010 Resistance/Support R: 1.4004/1.4045/1.4102 S:

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 04:23:39 GMT

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 03:53:41 GMT

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: Last Update At 03 Jul 2009 02:43 GMT Rate :  1.6377 As cable has rebounded in tandem with euro after trading abv y'day's NY low of 1.6323, suggesting the decline fm this week's high at 1.6745 has possi bly made a temp. low n nr term upside bias is seen for a recovery but reckon res at 1.6430 wud hold. For st trade, buy dips for 1.6400 n if sterling rises to 1.6410 1st, sell for retreat to 1.6360. Range Forecast 1.6350 / 1.6390 Resistance/Support R: 1.6400/1.6430/1.6465

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:27:26 GMT

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: Last Update At 02 Jul 2009 06:20 GMT Rate :  +1.6415+ Cable's intra-day selloff below 1.6452 in line with dlr's rebound vs other European ccys suggests recovery fm 1.6381 has ended at 1.6546 n below 1.64 06 wud signal decline fm this week's 1.6745 top has resumed, bring re-test of 1.6381 n then 1.6350/60. Sell on pullback with stop as indicated, abv wud prolong choppy trading n risk 1.6501 (Asia)... Range Forecast +1.6400 / 1.6440+ Resistance/Support R:

 

Forecast on JPY Crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY)
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:23:42 GMT

EURJPY   EURJPY breached the prior day's high and closed @ 13670 which was well above the open. ECB rate announcement & Non Farm Payroll.  The Hourly Oscillators are turning bearish and price is above the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy. We believe the upside will be limited.  The patterns on the 5 min chart is very noisy and we believe it might turn down soon.  We

 

Forecast on USD Minors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD)
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:20:40 GMT

USDCHF   USDCHF breached the prior day's low and closed @ 10755 which was well below the open. ECB rate announcement & Non Farm Payroll.  The Hourly Oscillators are bearish but weak and the price is below the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy. Due to slew of data out today and shortened trading week expect the market to be quiet before the data.  The patterns are very noisy but

 

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:17:43 GMT

EURUSD   EURUSD breached the prior day's high but gave up some of the gains and closed @ 14145 which was above the open.ECB rate announcement & Non Farm Payroll.   The Hourly Oscillators bullish but weak and the price is above the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy. Due to slew of data out today and shortened trading week expect the market to be quiet before the data.  The

 

Daily Technical Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:02:33 GMT

EURUSD Yesterday's boost to as high as 1.4200 - above last month's top at 1.4140 is seen as a bullish confirmation of current trend and the overnight pullback to 1.4100 is corrective, so far, support being formed at.14100 by the 50% retracement of yesterday's move from 1.4000 to 1.4200. The euro attempts to stabilize above the 1.4100 mark at the time of this writing. In case 1.4100 holds, upside targets could be challenged first at 1.4200 - yesterday's top, then higher - at 1.4250 - interim

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:49:34 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD : 1.4126 Last Update At 02 Jul 2009 02:23 GMT As euro has edged higher after initial weakness to 1.4113 n sideways consolidation is envisaged, a rise back abv 1.4172 is needed to signal pullback fm y'day's high at 1.4202 has ended n bring re-test of said res, then one more rise to 1.4225 later. Hold long, stop as indicated n only below 1.4088 wud abort intra-day bullishness, risk 1.4045/50. Range Forecast 1.4115 / 1.4145

 

The Daily Forecaster
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:44:21 GMT

Please read the attached PDF file to ensure that you receive the full analysis... Bias:             Mixed - waiting for breaks though ultimately I am looking for a low to develop and for stronger gains

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:11:45 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY EUR/USD : 96.60 Last Update At 02 Jul 2009 02:21 GMT Despite initial weakness at Asian opening due to cross-buying in yen, as renewed bids at 96.38 has contained weakness, consolidation with upside bias remains but abv y'day's high at 97.00 is needed to extend recent 'erratic' rise to 97.20 later. Hold long for 96.90 n only below y'day's low at 96.17 wud abort intra-day bullishness on dlr. Range Forecast 96.50 / 96.80 Resistance/Support R:

 

Forecast on JPY Crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY)
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:22:24 GMT

EURJPY   EURJPY held precisely the level we suggested ,moved higher and closed @ 13525 which was unchanged.  The Hourly Oscillators are bullish and price is above the MA, so the bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy.  The patterns on the 5 min chart is very noisy and we have no suggestions until there is a breakout.  We prefer to be Sidelined until the breakout happens or strictly trade

 

Forecast on USD Minors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD)
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:20:05 GMT

USDCHF   USDCHF held precisely the level we suggested ,was trading within prior day's trading range and closed @ 10865 which was above the open.  The Hourly Oscillators are bullish and the price is resting on the MA, so the bears have to Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy with an upside bias while 10775 level holds.  The patterns are very noisy and we have no suggestions.  We prefer to Sidelined until

 

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:18:13 GMT

EURUSD   EURUSD fell short of 20 pips from our price target we suggested and closed @ 14035 which was below the open.   The Hourly Oscillators are bearish and the price is above the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy with a downside bias.  The Patterns are very noisy but should come down while 14110-14160 level holds.  We prefer to be Sidelined, wait for a pull back for a

 

Daily Technical Outlook
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 06:22:37 GMT

EURUSD The euro lost some ground on yesterday as it failed to hold gains above the 1.4100 handle, and closed lower - therefore affecting the monthly bar that has been closed by 110 points below the open price of 1.4145 which provided the turning point resistance on yesterday's initial rally. Although the 1.4000 mark has been stable since yesterday's decline, downside pressure may intensify, aiming for bids into the 1.3900/10 region later. North of 1.4050 which is the first intra-day resistance

 

The Daily Forecaster
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 03:17:09 GMT

Please read the attached PDF file to ensure that you receive the full analysis... Bias:             The downside should be limited to 0.7982-00 today

 

Forecast on JPY Crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY)
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:31:00 GMT

EURJPY   EURJPY moved higher and closed @ 13530 which was above the open.  The Hourly Oscillators are mixed and price is above the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways Up and Daily Trend is Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy with an upside bias. We believe the price is going to have a rough ride as it is not quite clear in the near term.  The patterns on the 5 min chart is not clear but any pullback near 13445- 13390 will be a good place to

 

Forecast on USD Minors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD)
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:28:25 GMT

USDCHF   USDCHF held precisely the level we suggested ,moved lower and closed @ 10825 which was marginally below the open.  The Hourly Oscillators are bearish and the price is below the MA, so the bulls have to Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways Down and Daily Trend is Sideways, so expect the price to make lower lows while 10875-10920 level holds. We believe the price might creep lower.  The patterns are pointing lower and the price should not trade above 10875-10920 level

 

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:25:47 GMT

EURUSD   EURUSD held our hourly level precisely before moving up as suggested and closed @ 14080 which was above the open but was within prior day's trading range.   The Hourly Oscillators are bullish and the price is above the MA, so the bears have to be Sidelined. Hourly Trend is Sideways Up and Daily Trend is Sideways, so expect the price to make higher highs while 14040 level holds. The price should move higher at least to 14180 or even 14230 before any significant move

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:53:21 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD: Last Update At 30 Jun 2009 06:10 GMT Rate :  1.4127 Intra-day in cable shud support price here n a breach of last week's top at 1.4139 wud extend the erratic upmove fm 1.3748 twd 1.4178, however, loss of momentum shud limit upside to 1.4200/10 n risk has increased for a retreat later. Buy at market with stop as indicated, below wud risk pullback twd 1.4071 (Aust.) b4 up... Range Forecast 1.4110 / 1.4139 Resistance/Support R: 1.4139/1.4178/1.4213 S: 1.4071/1.4042/1.3978

 

Daily Technical Outlook
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 06:09:12 GMT

EURUSD Upside is under renewed pressure due to yesterday's 120 points rebound to as high as 1.4130 on today's Asian session. The euro holds steady around the 1.4100 handle at the time of this writing and first resistance is emerging at 1.4140/50. A sustained breach should open the 1.4330/50 top side region for a test within the coming days. Key resistance is formed into the 1.4330/50 zone, followed by 1.4620 higher - the 61.8% of last year's decline from 1.6035 to 1.2330. Intra-day sentiment

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 03:08:55 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY EUR/USD : 95.91 Last Update At 30 Jun 2009 04:01 GMT Despite y'day's strg rebound fm 95.16, intra-day retreat due partly to cross unwinding in yen indica tes temporary top has been made n sideways trading is seen until European opening, reckon 95.59/62 wud contain weakness n bring subsequent rebound. Stand aside n look to buy on further decline but said Asian morning high shud remain intact. Range Forecast 95.84 / 96.10 Resistance/Support R:

 

The Daily Forecaster
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:56:52 GMT

Please read the attached PDF file to ensure that you receive the full analysis... Bias:             I suspect we'll see losses today towards 1.6277-1.6313

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Tue, 30 Jun 2009 03:39:03 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD : +1.4130+ Last Update At 30 Jun 2009 02:47 GMT Although euro extended its o/n gain in NY n rose to 1.4127, nr term o/bot condition shud prevent fur ther strg gain abv last week's high at 1.4139 n a minor retracement may take place to 1.4075/80 b4 prospect of another upmove later. For st trade, venture selling on marginal rise, stop as indicated, abv may risk 1.4178 b4 retreat. Range Forecast 1.4100 / 1.4130 Resistance/Support R:

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 07:42:42 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD: Last Update At 29 Jun 2009 07:02 GMT Rate :  1.4003 Although euro has recovered after intra-day fall to 1.3982 at European opening, as early breach of 1.4003 signals near term decline fm 1.4119 (last Friday's high) has resumed, downside bias is seen for correction of the rise fm 1.3888 twd 1.3960/70. Turn short on pullback with stop as indicated, abv wud abort n risk rebound twd 1.4078 (Aust.)... Range Forecast 1.3985 / 1.4020 Resistance/Support R: 1.4043/1.4078/1.4119

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:26:01 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY EUR/USD : 95.36 Last Update At 29 Jun 2009 05:45 GMT Dlr's retreat after being capped below 95.62 (prev. sup) suggests the recovery fm last Friday's low at 95.04 has possibly ended n downside bias remains for weakness to said sup but below needed to signal decline has resumed for re-test of 94.88. Trade fm short side, stop as indicated n only abv 95.59/62 risks stronger retrace. to 95.90/00. Range Forecast 95.15 / 95.45 Resistance/Support R:

 

Forecast on JPY Crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY)
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:14:37 GMT

EURJPY   EURJPY as suggested moved higher but gave up the gains towards the end and closed @ 13390 which was below the open.  The Hourly Oscillators are mixed and price is within the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy. We believe the price is going to have a rough ride as it is not quite clear in the near term.  The patterns are not clear in the near term and we have no

 

Forecast on USD Minors (USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD)
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:10:36 GMT

USDCHF   USDCHF as suggested moved lower and closed @ 10840 which was below the open.  The Hourly Oscillators are turning bullish and but the price is above the MA, so cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy.  The patterns are not clear but the price should not trade above 10920-70 level in order to maintain the bearish view.  We prefer to Sidelined until there is a clear break or strictly

 

Daily Technical Outlook
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:12:57 GMT

EURUSD The upside has been limited by a falling trend-line around 1.4115 - extended from 1.4265 on June 5th though last week's top at 1.4140. Current pullback may extend towards the support into the 1.3920 region - formed by an upward trend-line started at 1.3750 extended through last week's lows. Short-term sentiment is positive and shouldn't be affected by potential pullbacks to as low as 1.3890/1.3920. Intra-day momentum is bearish at the time of this writing and a breach above 1.4070 is

 

Forecast on USD Majors (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY)
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 06:07:51 GMT

EURUSD   EURUSD as suggested moved higher and closed @ 14060 which was above the open.   The Hourly Oscillators are turning bearish and the price is still above the MA, so cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy. We believe the price is going to have a rough ride as it is not quite clear in the near term.  The Patterns are not clear but the price should not go below 13970 or max 13890 in

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 05:51:36 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD : 1.4030 Last Update At 29 Jun 2009 05:46 GMT Euro's rebound fm 1.4003 (Asia) suggests intra- day low has possibly been formed n as long as this sup holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains but abv 1.4078 (Aust.) is needed to confirm the pullback fm Friday's 1.4119 high is over. Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below 1.3978/83 aborts daily bullish prospect on euro. Range Forecast 1.4015 / 1.4043 Resistance/Support R:

 

The Daily Forecaster
Mon, 29 Jun 2009 03:38:59 GMT

Please read the attached PDF file to ensure that you receive the full analysis... Bias:             Cautiously I look for gains today but we should be careful at 1.0968 and the 1.1021 high

 

Forex Market Outlook on Majors
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:36:50 GMT

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD: Last Update At 26 Jun 2009 09:08 GMT Rate :  1.6475 Although cable has retreated after intra-day rally to 1.6498 n consolidation with mild downside bias wud be seen, pullback wud be ltd to 1.6415/20 n price shud hold well abv sup at 1.6373, yield ano other upmove to re-test said res. Wud be prudent to stand aside for now n look to sell on next rise for day trade as recommended.. Range Forecast 1.6440 / 1.6490 Resistance/Support R: 1.6498/1.6562/1.6605 S:

 

USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 09:31:48 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY EUR/USD : 95.92 Last Update At 26 Jun 2009 08:50 GMT Despite intra-day brief bounce to 96.05, lack of follow through buying suggests further consolida tion is in store but as long as 95.62 holds, mild upside bias remains for rebound to 96.20/25 but reckon y'day's high at 96.58 wud limit gain. Remain as cautious buyer with stop below said sup, break wud risk marginal weakness to 95.40/45. Range Forecast 95.80 / 96.05 Resistance/Support R: 96.28

 

EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 06:08:47 GMT

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD : 1.4043 Last Update At 26 Jun 2009 05:16 GMT Despite intra-day marginal gain to 1.4062, euro's subsequent retreat suggests consolidation below there is seen with downside bias for retrace. of near term rise fm 1.3888 to 1.4005/10 n possibly 1.3975/80, however, minor sup at 1.3963 shud hold. Turn short on recovery with stop as indicated, abv wud abort n risk further rise to 1.4100/10... Range Forecast 1.4025 / 1.4060 Resistance/Support

 

Daily Technical Outlook
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 05:52:34 GMT

EURUSD The euro challenges the interim top side as it managed to breach above the 1.4 handle. Intra-day sentiment is bullish and won't be affected as long as potential pullbacks won't extend much below 1.4000. Resistance is clustered into the 1.4110-1.4175 region - formed by a downward trend-line at 1.4110 and also the 61.8% of the last down leg from 1.4340 to 1.3750, current week's top at 1.4140 and 1.4175, the high of June 11. Below 1.4000, next important support is formed by a rising

 

Forecast on JPY Crosses (EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY)
Fri, 26 Jun 2009 05:27:40 GMT

EURJPY   EURJPY as expected moved up but was within prior day's trading range and closed @ 13425 which was above the open.  The Hourly Oscillators are mixed and price is within the MA, so Cautious approach is needed. Hourly Trend is Sideways and Daily Trend is also Sideways, so expect the price to be choppy with an upside bias.  The patterns are pointing higher while 13395-55 level holds and 13500 level give way expect at least 13570 or even 13670.  We prefer to

 

USD to CAD Daily Chart
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:53:41 GMT

As with several of the other major pairs the dollar to cad was a beneficiary of the market's return to the US Dollar as equity markets suffered as a result of the dreadful NFP data in the US which fell below market expectations, taking the US unemployment rate to almost 10%.  The daily candle closed as a wide spread up bar finishing the session above all three moving averages and finding good support from the 14 day.  However, the high of the day failed once again to hold above the

 

US Dollar Index
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:46:48 GMT

The US Dollar Index was one of the principal beneficiaries of the lacklustre reaction to the NFP data yesterday ending the day on a wide spread up bar which closed above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages once again.   Sadly the reaction was insufficient to take the Index back above the psychologically important resistance in place just below 81 so it is far too early to suggest that this can be considered a reversal in the fortunes of the US Dollar in the medium term, and in the

 

GBP/USD Daily Chart
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:40:30 GMT

The pounds to dollars pair was another beneficiary of the currency majors for the Dollar strength which came on the back of a sell off in the equity markets following the worse than expected NFP data in the US.  Yesterday's candle ended the trading session as a wide spread down bar closing below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages but still retaining a degree of clear water above the 40 day.  In many ways yesterday's candle has validated the extremely bearish "shooting star" seen

 

EUR vs USD Daily Chart
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:34:38 GMT

Yesterday's candle on the euro vs dollar daily chart ended the session as a wide spread down bar largely as a result of the worse than expected unemployment figures released in the US which subsequently led to a sell off in equities and a consequent strengthening of the US Dollar.  The candle closed the session below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages but interestingly found some support from the 40 day moving average which held the low of the day from a further fall.  The signal

 

moreGBPUSD: Faces Downside Pressure Nearer Term
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 11:52:13 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS: EURUSD: Looks To See Further Downside Pressure -Having turned off the 1.4177 level, its Jun 11'09 on Wednesday and followed through lower on Thursday, potential for further downside weakness continues to be seen though an early morning recovery higher was seen today. GBPUSD: Faces Downside Pressure Nearer Term -Outlook for GBP continues to point to the downside nearer term following its recent failure at the 1.6427 level, its Jun 29’09 and its subsequent collapse. EURUSD EURUSD:

 

Euro vs Dollar - Fundamental News
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:28:48 GMT

A very thin day for fundamental news on the economic calendar as America celebrates the Independence Day, so we only have two items of news in Europe to report, which have already been released in this morning's London trading session.  The first of these was the final services PMI Data, a diffusion index based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector, which came in at 44.7 against a forecast of 44.5.  Statistically not important and very similar to last time around

 

Still No Change in Tight Forex Ranges after ECB's Rate Decision
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:06:14 GMT

The ECB decided to leave interest rates unchanged yesterday, which was expected by the market. But then the central bank’s president announced more quantitative easing, but at the same time saying the ECB has done enough already. This confused the market, triggering a recovery of the dollar, which is still inversively linked to stock markets. We see a continued sideways market for currencies amidst economic uncertainty. Later in the day, the worse than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payroll report

 

Daily Oil Prices
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:20:29 GMT

This week's price action in daily oil prices has been distorted by "rogue trading" from one of the world's biggest oil brokers PVM here in London and goes some way to explain Tuesday's candle on the oil chart.  Briefly, during early trading in Asia at approximately 02.00 GMT an extremely and unusual trade was placed for 9000 lots (or even more) of Brent Crude which is equivalent to around 9m barrels of oil.  To put this into context the output of Saudi Arabia on a daily basis is

 

Spot Silver Price
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:19:17 GMT

Silver's reaction to the Non Farm Payroll data was somewhat more dramatic than that of spot gold and certainly paints a more bearish picture from a technical perspective, which is interesting, as there seems to be some divergence between the two metals which has been revealed in the last couple of weeks.  If we consider the silver chart first; yesterday's wide spread down bar added to the bearish sentiment following Monday's "shooting star" doji candle which signalled the start of this

 

Spot Gold Prices
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:02:33 GMT

Private investor appetite for gold shows little sign of abating with one private bullion dealer reporting holdings of physical gold jumping more than 40% in the first half of 2009 alone.   The reason?  Deep scepticism that the quantitative easing measures are not producing a self sustaining recovery and will, in the end, lead to massive inflation.  Despite this spot gold prices actually finished lower yesterday for a variety of reasons: first July is traditionally a very

 

GBP/USD is in a downward channel
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 09:18:35 GMT

 

EUR/USD
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:16:00 GMT

EUR/USD Eur/Usd broke higher and traded up to 1.4200. The sellers have smacked this lower this morning, and looking to test the 1.4085/80 support. Sellers will cover shorts at these lows. Buyers will test the water, but they will be quick and nifty to bail out if sellers take this below 1.4065. You would then find the 1.4020/00 support coming under attack and buyers will show solidarity and stand fast at these lows., They should be able to manage to drive this higher, as the short term charts

 

Dismal headline non-farm payrolls wipe out all the positive vibes from earlier in the week
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:38:47 GMT

US Independence Day holidays leave markets in the doldrums today MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION EU ECB leaves rates unchanged US Jun Non-farm payrolls out at -467k vs. -365k expected and -345k prior US Jun Unemployment rate out at 9.5% vs. 9.6% expected and 9.4% prior US Jun Avg Hourly Earnings out at flat vs. +0.1% expected and +0.1% prior US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims out at 614k vs. 615k expected and revised 630k prior US May Factory Goods Orders out at +1.2% m/m vs. +0.7% expected

 

Index Recommended Levels
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:10:40 GMT

Dow Jones : Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12 , 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00.   Break of the latter will lead to 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53 ( published on October 21 , 2008). Support (daily close):  8912.62, 8827.27, 8642.60, 8403.77, 8257.46 , 8100.00 and 7920.08. Then 7695.13, 7464.38, 7290.20 and 7177.50. Break of the latter will lead to 7020.34,

 

Dollar Looking for Direction
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:48:13 GMT

Dollar Looking for Direction The dollar and yen rose after US employment dropped more than expected, dampening economic recovery prospects. Stocks and commodities fell as investors sought haven in treasuries ahead of a long weekend in the US. The S&P 500 fell 26.91 points to 896.42. The European and commodity currencies declined on increased risk aversion. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the ECB expects a nearterm period of deflation to be “short-lived.” Trichet

 

ISE British Pound OUTLOOK
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:58:48 GMT

BPX (USD/GBP on ISE): USD rebound expected. Pivot: 60  Our forecast: Up move towards 63.10 & 65.50. Comment: The pair is rebounding on its strong support and has broken above its MT declining trend line, the RSI is on the upside.   To leverage our Trend Opinion on the ISE British Pound currency rate we selected the following strategy. * Volatility Cones can be used to visualize current option implied volatility relative to historic volatilities at different maturity ranges.

 

US Employment Report a slightly disappointing mixed bag
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:46:30 GMT

Volatility may be high ahead of long US weekend. Riksbank surprises with further 25 bp chop to rates - whither EURSEK? MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Australia May Trade Balance fell to -556M vs. -125M expected and -282M expected Norway Jun. PMI out at 48.7 vs. 43.0 expected and 40.8 in May Sweden's Riksbank cuts Interest rate 25 bps to 0.25% vs. no change expected  Norway Jun. Unemployment Rate rose to 2.7% as expected, vs. 2.6% in May  UK Jun. Construction PMI fell to 44.5 vs.

 

GBPUSD: Loses Upside Momentum, Faces Downside Weakness
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:49:13 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS: EURUSD: Turning Off Bullish Incursions - Although strength saw the pair closing strongly higher on Wednesday, an attempt on a break of its key resistance at the 1.4177 level, its Jun 11'09 high failed suggesting the mentioned upmovemay not be sustainable. GBPUSD: Loses Upside Momentum, Faces Downside Weakness - With upside price failure on Tuesday forming a shooting candle pattern and putting the pair back into its sideways trading range, outlook for GBP remains to the downside

 

EUR/GBP Daily Chart
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:35:42 GMT

The euros vs pound pair seems to have found some much needed support in the 0.84 to 0.85 price region and indeed Tuesday's hammer candle provided further evidence that we may be seeing a rebasing at this level.  Wednesday's wide spread up bar confirmed this bullish view which was reinforced by a crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages suggesting that the recent long down trend may have come to a temporary halt.  The key to whether this is a temporary move higher or a sustained

 

USD/JPY - Daily Chart
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:28:30 GMT

Yesterday's candle on the yen to dollar daily chart merely confirmed what we already know, namely that it is impossible to predict the direction for the pair at this stage.  The candle indicated a day of indecision with an upper wick, a narrow body which closed marginally above all three moving average.  However, these technical indicators have virtually lost all meaning in the current chart given that they are either crossing or bunching almost at random as a result of the sideways

 

USD to CAD - Daily Chart
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:18:18 GMT

Despite the fact Canada was enjoying a national holiday yesterday, the usd to cad pair managed to provide some lively price action on the daily chart closing the day on a relatively wide spread down bar with the low of the day finding some support at the 14 day moving average.  Technically the current price level between 1.15 and 1.16 is now proving to be a defining area for the current price rally from the low of 1.08.  The currency pair seem to be finding the resistance in place at

 

GBP/USD - Daily Chart
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:10:36 GMT

Yesterday's candle on the daily chart for the pounds to dollars pair failed to provide any clear signal to the likely future direction for the pair, ending the day as a small doji balanced neatly on the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  The only significant analysis would be that this failed to provide any confirmation or otherwise of the bearish  signal of Tuesday which came about as a result of the horrific GDP data released in the UK.  Today, of course, the short term direction

 

US Dollar Index - Daily Chart
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:05:18 GMT

The Dollar Index daily chart continued to consolidate sideways yesterday with Tuesday's up bar largely being negated by yesterday's price action which resulted in a narrow spread down bar which closed marginally below the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  The chart is now moving towards a pennant formation, possibly awaiting the outcome of today's NFP's data before providing us with some much needed momentum and direction.  There is, of course, the straight fight between Europe and the

 

EUR/USD Daily Chart
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:59:12 GMT

The Euro received two significant boosts yesterday which at one point resulted in the EUR/USD touching 1.42.  The first salvo was yet anti-dollar rhetoric from Fed Member Yellen clearly stating the necessity and desire to keep interest rates low - indeed he even went so far as to say: "we should want to do more. If we were not at zero, we would be lowering the funds rate" Next the Chinese weighed in with comments surrounding the reserve status of the US Dollar and their wish to have this

 

Daily Oil Prices
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:28:54 GMT

Yesterday's sell off in crude oil prices was somewhat surprising given a renewed weakening of the US Dollar (correlations can and do move in and out of sync) but could merely be reflecting the weak demand seen in the US as evidenced in the weekly EIA stats which showed gasoline stock rising by 2.3m barrels in the week ended 26th June.  In addition whilst the first half of 2009 has seen impressive stock market gains there is a growing fear that these gains will not be sustained going

 

Spot Silver Price
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:22:26 GMT

Spot silver prices too ended the day largely higher on the back of a weaker US Dollar and comments from China about the need to discuss the issue of a new global currency at next week's G8 summit in Italy.  However, the rise in silver was more muted, most likely as a result of a sharp fall in the price of crude oil, as the markets start to question whether the gains seen in the first half of 2009 will continue in Q2. Overall spot silver gained 12 cents to close at $13.787 per ounce. 

 

Spot Gold Prices
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:15:41 GMT

Once again spot gold prices moved in tandem with the US Dollar which came under pressure following release of the ADP numbers which showed the private sector had shed 473k jobs against a forecast of 388k.  Reports that China wants the G8 to discuss a new global currency also boosted the price of gold which is, of course, the world's supreme hard asset.  Interestingly spot gold carried on rising even as crude oil prices fell.  Overall gold ended the session $11.67 higher at

 

Do Not Expect Too Much of Today's ECB Rate Decision
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 09:42:36 GMT

The market expects an unchanged ECB rate at 1% today, to be published at 13.45 CET. But what is more important are the comments to the protocol at 14:30 CET, where the market sees more pronounced signals of monetary easing, i.e. buying up the Eurozone’s bonds. That would give a boost to the Euro, but we doubt that these announcements will be clear enough to accomplish that. This European morning, for instance, the EUR / USD is in retreat, although oversold enough right now to give room for some

 

German Bund & Bobl, Schatz
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:06:58 GMT

German Bund Sept Contract Narrow range leaves the outlook unchanged.. Sellers captured the topside at 121.15 and this came lower. Buyers once more came in at 120.77/76 which is close to the 38% short term fib. Same rules apply today however. If buyers take charge this morning you still have the 121.26/29 to navigate through. Sellers will be waiting here looking to keep a lid on it. Buyers would be advised to take profits here. Only above here would buyers re-instate longs, looking for 121.40.

 

EUR/USD
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:00:49 GMT

EUR/USD Eur/Usd broke higher and traded up to 1.4200. The sellers have smacked this lower this morning, and looking to test the 1.4085/80 support. Sellers will cover shorts at these lows. Buyers will test the water, but they will be quick and nifty to bail out if sellers take this below 1.4065. You would then find the 1.4020/00 support coming under attack and buyers will show solidarity and stand fast at these lows., They should be able to manage to drive this higher, as the short term charts

 

Market awaits US non-farm payrolls
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:54:24 GMT

ECB Rate Announcement also on tap – no change expected though MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION US Jun ADP Hirings out at -473k vs. -363k expected and revised -485k prior US Jun ISM Manufacturing Index out at 44.8 vs. 44.9 expected and 42.8 prior US May Pending Home Sales out at +0.1% m/m vs. flat expected and revised +7.1% prior US May Construction Spending out at -0.9% m/m vs. -0.6% expected and revised +0.6% prior AU May Trade Balance out at –A$556 mln vs. –A$125 mln expected and revised

 

Index Recommended Levels
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:02:25 GMT

Dow Jones : Resistance(daily close) : 9382.12 , 9744.26, 10 091.30, 10 935.23, 11 164.57, 344.92 and 11 520.30. Then 11 749.22, 11 970.00, 12 152.82, 12 600.24, 12 982.20, 13 162.50 and 13 320.00.   Break of the latter will lead to 13 567.60, 13 668.74 and 13 792.53 ( published on October 21 , 2008). Support (daily close):  8912.62, 8827.27, 8642.60, 8403.77, 8257.46 , 8100.00 and 7920.08. Then 7695.13, 7464.38, 7290.20 and 7177.50. Break of the latter will lead to 7020.34,

 

Greenback Lower on Better Global Manufacturing Indications
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 00:59:08 GMT

Greenback Lower on Better Global Manufacturing Indications The dollar fell against most key currencies on signs of improving global manufacturing activity. The S&P 500 rose 4.01 points to 923.33. Most currency pairs remain confined in narrow trading ranges without any clear directions. China’s manufacturing PMI rose for a fourth month and manufacturing in many other areas improved more than expected. US manufacturing shrank at the slowest pace since August 2008 while pending home sales

 

GBPUSD: Follow Through On Loss Of Upside Momentum Triggered
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 14:10:15 GMT

HIGHLIGHTS: EURUSD: Resistance Seen At The 1.4177 Level - With continued upside failures seen ahead of the 1.4177 level, its Jun 11'09 high, EUR remains vulnerable to the downside as a negative close was recorded Tuesday though strength was seen in early trading today. GBPUSD: Follow Through On Loss Of Upside Momentum Triggered - As indicated in our Tuesday analysis, having lost momentum at the 1.6742 level and collapsed to close lower forming a shooting star candle on Tuesday ,GBP was see

 

USD to CAD - Daily Chart
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:55:57 GMT

Like many other currency pairs the future direction for the usd to cad depends to a great extent on the outcome of tomorrow's NFP numbers and ECB interest rate decision.  In the meantime today has seen the release of the ADP figures which have come in far worse than expected at -473k against a forecast of -388k which may well be a portent for tomorrow's key number.  Although the ADP is only estimate of the change in private sector jobs its has recently been a good indicator for the

 

GBP/USD Daily Chart
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:38:39 GMT

Yesterday's candle on the pounds to dollars daily chart did indeed close the session with a heavily bearish flavour as evidenced by the deep upper shadow and small lower body, a classic shooting star signal and once that we need to consider carefully as a possible early warning.  The price action in creating the candle was largely triggered as a result of the dire UK GDP figures released during the London trading session which showed an economy in a far worse state than previously thought

 

EUR/USD - Daily Chart
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 12:10:02 GMT

The euro vs dollar continued its indecisive and meandering price action yesterday against a backdrop of month and quarter end liquidations and position squaring coupled with the prospect of a train crash on Thursday with the ECB going head to head with the Non Farm Payroll numbers and I suspect that we will see further sideways price action today as a result.  Yesterday's low of the day once again found some support from the 9 day moving average and with the 14 day now crossing below this

 

EUR/USD Fundamental News
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:53:33 GMT

Another relatively quiet day for fundamental news on the economic calendar for the euro vs dollar currency pair as the markets wait for the build up to tomorrow's ECB rate decision coupled with the NFP numbers which should make for a torrid trading session.  However, we do have an amuse bouche to look forward to this afternoon in the shape of the ADP numbers.    Meanwhile in Europe this morning we saw German retail sales coming in slightly better than expected at 0.4% and

 

US Dollar Index - Daily Chart
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 11:28:28 GMT

Yesterday's moderate show of dollar strength as reflected in the daily chart for the Dollar Index was more of a reaction to end of month and end of quarter liquidations and position squaring rather than any firm evidence of a shift in the market sentiment towards the US Dollar.   Indeed it could be said that the fate of the US Dollar  is inextricably linked to both NFP Employment Data and ECB interest rate statement and by association crude oil prices, which will collide

 

Daily Oil Prices
Wed, 01 Jul 2009 10:53:43 GMT

Yesterday's dramatic trading in the oil market saw the price of crude oil achieve a fresh high for 2009 when daily oil prices achieved $73.35 per barrel.  However, on touching this price point oil prices promptly reversed on a bout of violent profit taking which at one point saw the price of a barrel of oil fall back below $70 per barrel, and at one stage even reached an intra day low of $68.91.  In addition, month and quarter end liquidations and position squaring all contributed to

 

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Sat, 04 Jul 2009 08:48:33 GMT

Nymex Crude Oil (CL) After edging higher to 73.38, Crude oil reversed and fell sharply to close below key near term support of 66.25 at 65.63. There were two important implications from last week's move. Firstly, it was an outside week reversal. Secondly, break of 66.25 completed a double top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Both developments, combing with the fact that daily MACD is now sustaining below it's own trend line, indicates that crude oil has at least topped out in short term, and

 

FX Thoughts for the Day
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 12:42:54 GMT

EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN --------------------------- Read our current comments and trade recommendations on EUR-USD, USD-JPY and EUR-JPY by registering at http://www.kshitij.com/fxthoughts/fxthoughts.shtml#register Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below ------------------------------------------------------------- USD-CHF @ 1.0874/77...Ranged ------------------------- R: 1.0900 / 1.0988 / 1.1025 S: 1.0848 / 1.0817-0800 / 1.0749 Dollar-Swiss has

 

EUR/USD
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 10:34:05 GMT

EUR/USD has formed at least few years high last year at 1.6038 (15.07.2008). The subsequent sell-off was very sharp but turned out to be corrective in nature – flat correction. Wave A of it finished at 1.2549 (4 December 2008) and the following movement is wave B. My wave count for the said wave B is presented on the chart. I label it as a flat with currently developing wave c as a terminal impulse with extended fifth wave. This terminal impulse is still far from completing and I expect

 

Natural Gas Daily Technical Outlook
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:53:59 GMT

Nymex Natural Gas (NG) Natural gas' break of 3.717 support affirms our view that triangle consolidation from 3.155 has completed at 4.138. At this point, intraday bias remains mildly on the downside as long as 3.799 minor resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 3.155/388 support zone next and firm break there will bring down trend resumption. On the upside, above 3.799 will turn intraday outlook neutral first and delay the bearish view as, in such case, the consolidation might not be

 

Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:51:46 GMT

EUR/USD  Current level-1.4010 EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3064 and 1.3524.    1.4001 support gave way and the pair is in a downtrend towards 1.3830, en route to 1.3746. Resistance comes at 1.4043, followed by the crucial 1.4110.

 

Eurodollar Future – September 2009
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:34:50 GMT

Comment : Scrambling back up towards contract high (99.420) as two and five-year TNotes catch up with what has been going on in the money market, where US banks are finding it a lot easier and cheaper to borrow dollars than other institutions can. This futures contract is overbought and prone to sudden slippage on the slightest piece of baddish news so extreme caution is warranted. Nevertheless the hope of even lower rates continues. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 99.395, adding to 99.320;

 

The USD/CAD rose from 1.1496 to 1.1630 at its closing
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:33:06 GMT

Good morning from sticky Hamburg and welcome to the last Daily FX Report of this week. Notwithstanding, the ECB rate decision didn’t hold any surprises but the FOREX market keep on doing very volatile. However, we wish you a nice weekend and a prosperous trading day. Market review The EUR fell versus the JPY and the USD for the second day after a U.S. report showed that employers cut more jobs last month than economists expected. The unemployment rate rose to its highest level in almost 26

 

Another Range for Euro?
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:33:06 GMT

EUR The pre-planned break-out variant for sales has been implemented with overlap of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator having marked indefiniteness of bearish development at break of key resistance range levels does not clarify the choice of planning priorities for today. Nevertheless, considering given situation favouring sales, we assume probability of rate return to Senkou Span B line in Ichimoku indicator at levels 1,4000/20, where it is recommended to evaluate the

 

Chart of the day EURUSD
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:10:47 GMT

Yesterday's EURUSD support level was broken at 1.4012, and it has formed another support level at 1.3958 which is the current and valid support line. After EURUSD has calmed down it bounce up, we can expect this bounce to last until 1.4090 with a test of 1.4100 price level. Bulls should be rearranging their forces in order to come back against bears.

 

Futures Technical & Fundamental Analysis Recap
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:12:15 GMT

The June U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Report showed that employers cut more jobs last month than estimated, curtailing demand for higher –risk, higher-yielding assets while sending the U.S. Dollar sharply higher.   Pre-report guesses indicated that traders were positioning themselves for a job loss of 365,000.  The Dollar rose sharply higher when the U.S. Labor Department reported a total loss of 467,000.  The unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, slightly better than the estimate but

 

Forex Technical & Fundamental Analysis Recap
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 07:05:18 GMT

The June U.S. Non Farm Payrolls Report showed that employers cut more jobs last month than estimated, curtailing demand for higher –risk, higher-yielding assets while sending the U.S. Dollar sharply higher.   Pre-report guesses indicated that traders were positioning themselves for a job loss of 365,000.  The Dollar rose sharply higher when the U.S. Labor Department reported a total loss of 467,000.  The unemployment rate rose to 9.5%, slightly better than the estimate but

 

Today's Trading Signals
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:40:31 GMT

The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the

 

EUR: Attempt longs at 1.4000
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 06:42:18 GMT

EUR Comment: Messy and we remind that a weekly close above 1.4200 is the absolute minimum needed to confirm an important upside break. Until then we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4000; stop below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200. EUR/JPY Comment: Looking more top-heavy after yesterday’s decent ‘bearish engulfing’ candle here and on a number of other Yen crosses. Obviously there is still the moving

 

EUR/USD: (1.3995) Failed in its retest of 1.4178 (see graph)
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:53:48 GMT

Testing daily Long Term Moving Average↑ (1.3985 today), which managed to act as Support in recent downmove, with pair having failed in its retest of 1.4178 (see graph). Support area at 1.3938/ .3934 (today’s + current week low?/ daily projection band bottom), with next levels at 1.3888 (reaction lows hourly), ahead of 1.3866/ .3860 (weekly Uptrendline off March low + daily envelope bottom/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts. Resistance at 1.4035/ .4038 (daily envelope top/ daily

 

Currency Majors Technical Analysis
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:31:44 GMT

European Session EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 0,8022. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. The volatility is high. Bollinger bands are deviated. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. ForexTrend 1H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. 4H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on EUR USD. The price should find a support above 1,3925 (5903 pips). The consolidation should continue. Resistances 1,4030 -

 

Daily Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 05:11:53 GMT

Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) :  1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400 . Break of the latter will give  1.4490, 1.4692 и 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386, 1.5592 и 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to  1.5865, 1.7280 и 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published о n

 

Currency Majors Technical Perspective
Fri, 03 Jul 2009 01:17:29 GMT

EUR/USD Current price: 1.3955 Exhausted to the downside after reaching 1.3920, pair is attempting an upside correction in Asia, despite Nikkei open around 150 points to the downside, following American tone. Capped by 1.3965, upside seems limited as bigger time frames are giving bearish continuation signals. Support levels:   1.3920 1.3880 1.3830  Resistance levels:   1.3965 1.4000 1.4040 GBP/USD Current price: 1.6365 Downside pressure continues on Gbp, that has formed kind of a

 

NZDUSD looking to target below 0.6200
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 22:36:58 GMT

 

Comprehensive FX and Futures Daily Research
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:50:55 GMT

EUR/USD Reverses from our 3rd Tier Downtrend Line The EUR/USD is losing yesterday’s positive momentum after employment data from both the EU and U.S. showed rising unemployment continues to be a thorn in the side of the economic recovery. The EU’s unemployment rate came in at 9.5%, two basis points above analyst expectations, while the previous release was revised upwards by one basis point. As for the U.S., America’s unemployment was also reported at 9.5%, a basis point below analyst

 

Chart of the Day – AUD/USD
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 16:23:53 GMT

(Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; Fibonacci retracements in grey; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.) 7/02/2009 – AUD/USD – Dollar-strengthening price action on AUD/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, has once again descended back down to a key uptrend support line extending from the March lows. This line has already been

 

What's Next for Gold
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 15:35:17 GMT

  Gold is ending the week at a key support level.  If 929.39 continues to hold, we could see a rally week which takes us first to 958.60, and if that breaks possibly to re-test January’s high of 1005.98 If the 929.39 level is broken, we could see prices drop to 872-882 before it begins to recover. Long-term, we remain bullish on gold, with an eventual target at 1129.96 Dollars per ounce.  But, before that target can come back into play, price needs to break 1005.98, and find

 

Currency Majors Technical Perspective
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:53:16 GMT

EUR/USD Current price: 1.4054 Bearish in the hourly, pair is holding above 1.4040 static support zone, ahead of 1.4000 psychological level. With indicators suggesting more downside pressure, expect the rally to accelerate under that level. 4 hours indicators support the perspective also. Support levels: 1.4040 1.4000 1.3960 Resistance levels: 1.4090 1.4135 1.4170 GBP/USD Current price: 1.6388 Under selling pressure, pair seems unable to regain the 1.6420 zone. A descendant trend line, along

 

Currency Majors Technical Analysis
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:15:37 GMT

American Session EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 1,4073. The price is just above 1,4050 support. The volatility is high. ForexTrend daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. daily ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. 1H ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bearish pressure on EUR USD. The price should find a support above 1,4050 (23 pips). The price has a good probability to go up. Resistances 1,4120 - 1,4150 Supports 1,4050 - 1,4030 GBP/USD -

 

FX Thoughts for the Day
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:18:10 GMT

USD-CHF @ 1.0838/42...May move up towards 1.10 R: 1.0849-53 / 1.0882 / 1.1025 S: 1.0788 / 1.0700-0686 / 1.0554 Dollar-Swiss is testing the Resistance region mentioned in the morning. If successful, it could move up towards 1.10 during the US session or by the end of the week. If it finds Resistance near 1.1025 and comes off, the range of 1.0650-1.1025 would continue to hold over the next few days. Besides the braiding and flattening MAs on the 4H chart continue to provide the pair the pivot on

 

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:01:18 GMT

Nymex Crude Oil (CL) Crude oil's fall extends further today and break of 68.45 support confirms that rise from 66.25 has completed. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside and further fall should be seen to test 66.26 support. Note that sustained break there will be an important signal of double top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38) and will indicate that Crude oil has already topped out. In such case, short term outlook will be turned bearish and we'd anticipate at least a test trend line

 

Forex Technical Analysis on Majors
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 11:50:07 GMT

EUR/USD  Current level-1.4103 EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are neutral, and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3064 and 1.3524.    After breaking above 1.4103 resistance, the pair peaked at 1.4201 and current bias is negative. A clear break below 1.4001 will target directly 1.3890, en route to 1.3721.

 

The deficit climbed from A$282mln in April to A$556mln in May
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:29:42 GMT

Good morning from sticky Hamburg and welcome to our Daily FX Report. The FOREX market keeps on doing to trade very volatile, which could be further enforce by the rate decision of the European central bank today. However, we wish you a successful trading day. Market review The JPY rose against 14 of the 16 most-traded currencies on concern that a report may show today that U.S. unemployment rate climbed for the 18th month, increasing demand for the relative safety of the JPY . The JPY

 

Currency Technical Report
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 10:37:55 GMT

EUR/USD Resistance: 1.4130-50 / 1.4180-00 / 1.4230-50/ 1.4350-80 Support :1.4080-00 / 1.4030-50 / 1.4000-15 / 1.3950-80 Comment: Euro rose yesterday, breaching resistance at 1,4130-50 and formed a top at 1,4200. The sideways formation is still valid and we need a daily close and a clear break of 1,4150-00 in order to confirm an uptrend. Until that happens, we will be skeptical regarding the rise resumption as resistance at the upper part of the sideways formation is being tested. Important

 

Euribor – December 2009
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:30:17 GMT

Comment: Euribor futures are consolidating happily just under record highs as the ECB meets again today. Front March looks set to break higher and catch up with this December one. As with Short Sterling futures, the question now is whether contracts can hold above the 99.000 level. We remind that the mix of record low rates/record futures prices and a shaky banking system mean that volatility should remain high. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.815, adding 98.770; stop well below 98.650.

 

Additional Potential for Euro
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:28:39 GMT

EUR The pre-planned break-out variant for buyers has been implemented with achievement of minimal anticipated target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked relative bullish activity rise at break-out of key resistance range levels gives grounds to bullish activity priority for planning priority choice for today. Hence and considering downside indicator trend we can assume probability of another rate return to channel support “1” contained in 1,4060/80 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate

 

Monthly Technical Outlook
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 07:32:27 GMT

Monthly Outlook for EUR Comment: Following May’s strong rally the Euro has consolidated in a very small range in what might be a ‘pennant’ formation. Having retraced half of last year’s losses, holding roughly where it started off in October, and below a very large flat-topped Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Moving averages have crossed to bullish and hopefully thin summer markets will let it break above here, a weekly close above 1.4400 setting off a squeeze to 1.4600/1.4800 and an extension to the

 

Futures Market Technical and Fundamental Recap
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:41:28 GMT

Today's Futures Analysis summary   Tomorrow is U.S. Unemployment Report day.  Traders are guessing that 365,000 jobs were lost in June.  This figure should push the Unemployment Rate to 9.6%.  Trading was thin in most commodity markets.  Some traders feel that price movement was exaggerated because of the light trade.   The U.S. Dollar traded weaker overnight due to increased demand for higher yielding assets.  Strong buying in the Asian and European equity

 

Forex Market Technical and Fundamental Recap
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:37:21 GMT

Today's Forex Analysis summary.   The U.S. Dollar felt pressure overnight because of stronger Asian and European stock markets and struggled even more after the release of the ADP Employment Services Report.    The move into equities overnight triggered more demand for higher yielding assets and kept pressure on the low yielding U.S. Dollar.  The move was a surprise because of tomorrow’s U.S. Unemployment Report.  Some traders felt the rally was overdone because of

 

Today's Trading Signals
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:25:15 GMT

The trading strategies are based exclusively on technical analysis and are short term with a maximum time horizon of 3 to 5 days. The philosophy behind the Today's Trading Signals (TTS) is to take low risk, high return positions with tight stops. That means Financial Trend Analysis (FTA) focus the most on placing the right stops. Every morning FTA reviews the market and the specific strategy, recalculates the risk/reward and then determines the strategy regardless of previous strategy in the

 

Chart of the day EUR/USD
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:21:07 GMT

EURUSD is in a swing mood. After bulls takes the lead the bears comes back with a revenge, but importantly that revenge is not so powerful that could break the trend of positiveness. However positive trend is not very strong - to get more confidence for the bulls we should see a price around 1.4200.

 

EUR: Attempt longs at 1.4115
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 06:26:53 GMT

EUR Comment: Media getting excited as the Euro manages is strongest close in a month. We remind that a weekly close above 1.4200 is the absolute minimum needed to confirm an important upside break. Until then we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.4115, adding to 1.4000; stop below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4200, then 1.4300/1.4339. EUR/JPY Comment: Yesterday’s rally was a lot stronger than anticipated and bulls will be

 

Currency Majors Technical Analysis
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:49:02 GMT

European Session EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 1,4116. EUR USD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. The volatility decreases. Bollinger bands are tightened. ForexTrend 1H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bullish configuration. daily ForexSto (Modified Stochastic) indicate a bullish pressure on EUR USD. The consolidation should continue. The price should find a support above 1,4050 (66 pips). Resistances 1,4150 - 1,4200 Supports 1,4085 - 1,4050 GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar

 

EUR/USD: (1.4111) Retested 1.4178 (see graph)
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:49:15 GMT

Daily Long Term Moving Average↑ (1.3982 today) managed to act as Support in recent downmove, with pair having retested 1.4178 (see graph: neckline Double Bottom). Support area at 1.4087/ .4076 (daily envelope bottom + daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ break-up hourly), with next levels at 1.4018 (reaction low hourly), ahead of 1.3993/ 1.3982 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ current week low + daily Bollinger midline + see above), where pause favored. If wrong, next levels at 1.3889/ .3888

 

Daily Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 05:03:42 GMT

Several words about the EUR/USD future. Resistance (daily close) :  1.3182, 1.3364, 1.3590 and 1.3778. After that 1.3958, 1.4186 and 1.4400 . Break of the latter will give  1.4490, 1.4692 и 1.4884. Then 1.5117, 1.5386, 1.5592 и 1.5660. Break of 1.5660 would lead to  1.5865, 1.7280 и 1.9430 (published on 23.10.2008) . Support (daily close) : 1.2610, 1.2428 and 1.2246. Then 1.2128, 1.1970, 1.1838 and 1.1700. Break of the latter would give 1.1533, 1.1352 and 1.1181 (published о n

 

Currency Majors Technical Perspective
Thu, 02 Jul 2009 01:31:16 GMT

EUR/USD Current price: 1.4144 Downside correction halted around 1.4130 zone, and the pair is regaining the upside with Nikkei opening, that as expected is following U.S. stocks good tone, approaching to 10.000 level. Hourly indicators have turn to the upside while a small continuation pattern in the hourly supports further rises if pair manages to break above the 1.4160 zone. Support levels: 1.4130 1.4100 1.4055 Resistance levels: 1.4160 1.4200 1.4235   GBP/USD Current price: 1.6496 Range